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EPL - Betting Value Index

EPL

The following table ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market. Closing odds primarily from bet365 are used.

The figures represent the net profit had you wagered $1.00 on the corresponding team in the head-to-head market for each game.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.

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Notes:

Fav = favourite, meaning games where the team was at shorter odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
Und = underdog, meaning games where the team was at longer odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
All = all fixtures (favourite, underdog and equal favourite)
# = the number of games
Profit = net returns over all of the games divided by the number of games: net profit / games

The favourite + underdog stats may not always correspond to the All statitisics because All includes fixtures where the team started as the joint favourite, while Fav and Und do not.

Betting Value Index: Home & Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

Aston Villa
Fav:$-2.72 38 14.9%
Und:$8.40
All:$5.68

West Ham
Fav:$-1.44 38 13.8%
Und:$6.70
All:$5.26

Bournemouth
Fav:$4.80 38 8.0%
Und:$-1.75
All:$3.05

Nottm Forest
Fav:$2.57 38 7.8%
Und:$1.40
All:$2.97

Fulham
Fav:$-1.62 38 5.9%
Und:$3.85
All:$2.23

Liverpool
Fav:$3.78 38 2.1%
Und:$-3.00
All:$0.78

Arsenal
Fav:$1.55 38 -3.8%
Und:$-3.00
All:$-1.45

Chelsea
Fav:$6.38 38 -4.3%
Und:$-8.00
All:$-1.62

Newcastle
Fav:$-3.80 38 -4.3%
Und:$2.15
All:$-1.65

Tottenham
Fav:$-2.51 38 -5.8%
Und:$0.30
All:$-2.21

Wolves
Fav:$1.58 38 -6.2%
Und:$-3.95
All:$-2.37

Ipswich
Fav:$-2.00 13 -26.9%
Und:$-1.50
All:$-3.50

Man City
Fav:$-3.72 38 -12.4%
Und:$-1.00
All:$-4.72

Leicester
Fav:$-1.00 13 -48.1%
Und:$-5.25
All:$-6.25

Everton
Fav:$-0.27 38 -17.6%
Und:$-4.40
All:$-6.67

Crystal Palace
Fav:$1.56 38 -17.7%
Und:$-8.30
All:$-6.74

Brighton
Fav:$-4.13 38 -19.3%
Und:$-4.82
All:$-7.32

Man Utd
Fav:$-0.58 38 -21.0%
Und:$-7.40
All:$-7.98

Southampton
Fav:$-3.00 13 -79.8%
Und:$-9.00
All:$-10.37

Brentford
Fav:$2.18 38 -32.7%
Und:$-14.60
All:$-12.42
 

Betting Value Index: Home

Team Betting Value # Profit

Fulham
Fav:$-0.02 19 32.3%
Und:$6.15
All:$6.13

Everton
Fav:$-1.22 18 29.9%
Und:$7.60
All:$5.38

Bournemouth
Fav:$-0.10 18 20.3%
Und:$3.75
All:$3.65

Chelsea
Fav:$4.82 19 14.8%
Und:$-2.00
All:$2.82

Newcastle
Fav:$-1.65 18 5.0%
Und:$2.55
All:$0.90

Liverpool
Fav:$1.65 20 3.3%
Und:$-1.00
All:$0.65

Arsenal
Fav:$0.50 18 2.8%
Und:$0.00
All:$0.50

Tottenham
Fav:$3.49 20 2.5%
Und:$-3.00
All:$0.49

Brighton
Fav:$-0.80 19 0.0%
Und:$0.80
All:$0.00

Man Utd
Fav:$0.09 19 -2.2%
Und:$-0.50
All:$-0.41

Aston Villa
Fav:$-5.39 19 -2.8%
Und:$4.85
All:$-0.54

Crystal Palace
Fav:$1.36 20 -9.7%
Und:$-3.30
All:$-1.94

Brentford
Fav:$3.80 19 -11.6%
Und:$-6.00
All:$-2.20

Leicester
Fav:$-1.00 6 -41.7%
Und:$-1.50
All:$-2.50

Southampton
Fav:$-3.00 6 -56.2%
Und:$-2.00
All:$-3.37

Man City
Fav:$-4.11 19 -21.6%
Und:$0.00
All:$-4.11

Wolves
Fav:$1.58 20 -22.1%
Und:$-6.00
All:$-4.42

Nottm Forest
Fav:$-0.75 20 -29.3%
Und:$-5.10
All:$-5.85

Ipswich
Fav:$-2.00 6 -100.0%
Und:$-4.00
All:$-6.00

West Ham
Fav:$-1.94 20 -33.2%
Und:$-4.70
All:$-6.64
 

Betting Value Index: Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

West Ham
Fav:$0.50 18 66.1%
Und:$11.40
All:$11.90

Nottm Forest
Fav:$3.32 18 49.0%
Und:$6.50
All:$8.82

Aston Villa
Fav:$2.67 19 32.7%
Und:$3.55
All:$6.22

Ipswich
Fav:$0.00 7 35.7%
Und:$2.50
All:$2.50

Wolves
Fav:$0.00 18 11.4%
Und:$2.05
All:$2.05

Liverpool
Fav:$2.13 18 0.7%
Und:$-2.00
All:$0.13

Bournemouth
Fav:$4.90 20 -3.0%
Und:$-5.50
All:$-0.60

Man City
Fav:$0.39 19 -3.2%
Und:$-1.00
All:$-0.61

Arsenal
Fav:$1.05 20 -9.8%
Und:$-3.00
All:$-1.95

Newcastle
Fav:$-2.15 20 -12.8%
Und:$-0.40
All:$-2.55

Tottenham
Fav:$-6.00 18 -15.0%
Und:$3.30
All:$-2.70

Leicester
Fav:$0.00 7 -53.6%
Und:$-3.75
All:$-3.75

Fulham
Fav:$-1.60 19 -20.5%
Und:$-2.30
All:$-3.90

Chelsea
Fav:$1.56 19 -23.4%
Und:$-6.00
All:$-4.44

Crystal Palace
Fav:$0.20 18 -26.7%
Und:$-5.00
All:$-4.80

Southampton
Fav:$0.00 7 -100.0%
Und:$-7.00
All:$-7.00

Brighton
Fav:$-3.33 19 -38.5%
Und:$-5.62
All:$-7.32

Man Utd
Fav:$-0.67 19 -39.8%
Und:$-6.90
All:$-7.57

Brentford
Fav:$-1.62 19 -53.8%
Und:$-8.60
All:$-10.22

Everton
Fav:$0.95 20 -60.3%
Und:$-12.00
All:$-12.05
 

Other EPL Resources

The interactive EPL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The EPL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The EPL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The EPL Poisson distribution tool applies the Poisson distribution to any pair of teams and chosen timeframe. Outcome probabilities predicted by the model along with their respective fair odds are provided.

The EPL score statistics provides goals for, goals against, goal difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The EPL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The EPL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The EPL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

EPL clean sheets displays each team's clean sheets tally for the date range of your choosing.

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