EPL - Betting Value Index

EPL

The following table ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market. Closing odds primarily from bet365 are used.

The figures represent the net profit had you wagered $1.00 on the corresponding team in the head-to-head market for each game.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.

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Notes:

Fav = favourite, meaning games where the team was at shorter odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
Und = underdog, meaning games where the team was at longer odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
All = all fixtures (favourite, underdog and equal favourite)
# = the number of games
Profit = net returns over all of the games divided by the number of games: net profit / games

The favourite + underdog stats may not always correspond to the All statitisics because All includes fixtures where the team started as the joint favourite, while Fav and Und do not.

Betting Value Index: Home & Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

Everton
Fav:-$0.95 36 41.0%
Und:$14.10
All:$14.77

Leicester
Fav:-$2.76 37 30.9%
Und:$14.20
All:$11.44

Burnley
Fav:$3.90 37 24.3%
Und:$5.10
All:$9.00

West Ham
Fav:$3.16 36 24.5%
Und:$5.65
All:$8.81

Aston Villa
Fav:-$0.69 36 14.5%
Und:$5.91
All:$5.22

Southampton
Fav:-$2.19 36 12.2%
Und:$6.57
All:$4.38

Arsenal
Fav:-$5.51 37 8.1%
Und:$9.52
All:$3.01

Crystal Palace
Fav:$3.75 37 6.1%
Und:-$1.48
All:$2.27

Newcastle
Fav:-$0.23 36 1.6%
Und:$0.80
All:$0.57

Wolves
Fav:-$4.65 37 -0.3%
Und:$4.55
All:-$0.10

Tottenham
Fav:-$1.80 36 -0.8%
Und:$1.50
All:-$0.30

Leeds
Fav:-$0.06 26 -1.4%
Und:-$0.30
All:-$0.36

Man Utd
Fav:-$1.05 37 -1.5%
Und:$0.50
All:-$0.55

Man City
Fav:-$1.03 38 -2.7%
Und:$0.00
All:-$1.03

Chelsea
Fav:-$3.99 37 -6.9%
Und:$1.45
All:-$2.54

Sheffield Utd
Fav:-$1.99 38 -11.8%
Und:-$2.50
All:-$4.49

Liverpool
Fav:-$5.82 37 -23.8%
Und:-$3.00
All:-$8.82

Brighton
Fav:-$10.80 36 -25.0%
Und:$1.80
All:-$9.00

Fulham
Fav:-$2.60 27 -47.0%
Und:-$10.10
All:-$12.70

West Brom
Fav:$0.60 27 -51.5%
Und:-$14.50
All:-$13.90
 

Betting Value Index: Home

Team Betting Value # Profit

Southampton
Fav:-$1.54 18 37.3%
Und:$8.25
All:$6.71

West Ham
Fav:$0.76 18 33.1%
Und:$5.20
All:$5.96

Sheffield Utd
Fav:$1.01 19 23.7%
Und:$3.50
All:$4.51

Aston Villa
Fav:-$0.88 17 21.7%
Und:$4.57
All:$3.69

Tottenham
Fav:$1.22 18 17.3%
Und:$1.90
All:$3.12

Arsenal
Fav:-$2.79 18 10.9%
Und:$4.75
All:$1.96

Wolves
Fav:-$2.00 18 10.3%
Und:$3.85
All:$1.85

Man City
Fav:$1.00 20 5.0%
Und:$0.00
All:$1.00

Chelsea
Fav:-$0.33 18 4.8%
Und:$1.20
All:$0.87

Leicester
Fav:-$1.48 18 4.8%
Und:$2.35
All:$0.87

Man Utd
Fav:-$4.39 18 -10.5%
Und:$2.50
All:-$1.89

Everton
Fav:-$2.95 18 -15.7%
Und:-$1.50
All:-$2.83

Liverpool
Fav:-$1.94 19 -15.5%
Und:-$1.00
All:-$2.94

Burnley
Fav:$1.00 19 -17.4%
Und:-$4.30
All:-$3.30

Newcastle
Fav:-$0.23 18 -18.8%
Und:-$3.15
All:-$3.38

Leeds
Fav:-$2.19 13 -32.2%
Und:-$2.00
All:-$4.19

Crystal Palace
Fav:$0.75 19 -28.8%
Und:-$6.23
All:-$5.48

West Brom
Fav:$0.60 14 -49.3%
Und:-$7.50
All:-$6.90

Fulham
Fav:$1.40 14 -68.6%
Und:-$11.00
All:-$9.60

Brighton
Fav:-$8.00 18 -65.0%
Und:-$3.70
All:-$11.70
 

Betting Value Index: Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

Everton
Fav:$2.00 18 97.8%
Und:$15.60
All:$17.60

Burnley
Fav:$2.90 18 68.3%
Und:$9.40
All:$12.30

Leicester
Fav:-$1.28 19 55.6%
Und:$11.85
All:$10.57

Crystal Palace
Fav:$3.00 18 43.1%
Und:$4.75
All:$7.75

Newcastle
Fav:$0.00 18 21.9%
Und:$3.95
All:$3.95

Leeds
Fav:$2.13 13 29.5%
Und:$1.70
All:$3.83

West Ham
Fav:$2.40 18 15.8%
Und:$0.45
All:$2.85

Brighton
Fav:-$2.80 18 15.0%
Und:$5.50
All:$2.70

Aston Villa
Fav:$0.19 19 8.1%
Und:$1.34
All:$1.53

Man Utd
Fav:$3.34 19 7.1%
Und:-$2.00
All:$1.34

Arsenal
Fav:-$2.72 19 5.5%
Und:$4.77
All:$1.05

Wolves
Fav:-$2.65 19 -10.3%
Und:$0.70
All:-$1.95

Man City
Fav:-$2.03 18 -11.3%
Und:$0.00
All:-$2.03

Southampton
Fav:-$0.65 18 -12.9%
Und:-$1.68
All:-$2.33

Fulham
Fav:-$4.00 13 -23.8%
Und:$0.90
All:-$3.10

Chelsea
Fav:-$3.66 19 -17.9%
Und:$0.25
All:-$3.41

Tottenham
Fav:-$3.02 18 -19.0%
Und:-$0.40
All:-$3.42

Liverpool
Fav:-$3.88 18 -32.7%
Und:-$2.00
All:-$5.88

West Brom
Fav:$0.00 13 -53.8%
Und:-$7.00
All:-$7.00

Sheffield Utd
Fav:-$3.00 19 -47.4%
Und:-$6.00
All:-$9.00
 

Other Resources

Watch EPL games live and on demand with Kayo Sports.

A preview with betting tips for this round has been published on AusSportsBetting.com.

The interactive EPL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The EPL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The EPL Poisson distribution tool applies the Poisson distribution to any pair of teams and chosen timeframe. Outcome probabilities predicted by the model along with their respective fair odds are provided.

The EPL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The EPL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

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