EPL - Betting Value Index

EPL

The following table ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market. Closing odds primarily from bet365 are used.

The figures represent the net profit had you wagered $1.00 on the corresponding team in the head-to-head market for each game.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.

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Notes:

Fav = favourite, meaning games where the team was at shorter odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
Und = underdog, meaning games where the team was at longer odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
All = all fixtures (favourite, underdog and equal favourite)
# = the number of games
Profit = net returns over all of the games divided by the number of games: net profit / games

The favourite + underdog stats may not always correspond to the All statitisics because All includes fixtures where the team started as the joint favourite, while Fav and Und do not.

Betting Value Index: Home & Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

Aston Villa
Fav:-$8.48 43 25.5%
Und:$19.46
All:$10.98

Everton
Fav:-$4.78 41 24.5%
Und:$13.20
All:$10.04

West Ham
Fav:$8.82 42 17.9%
Und:-$1.30
All:$7.52

Brentford
Fav:$0.00 8 69.4%
Und:$5.55
All:$5.55

Leicester
Fav:-$4.46 42 11.5%
Und:$9.30
All:$4.84

Tottenham
Fav:$1.87 42 9.1%
Und:$1.95
All:$3.82

Man Utd
Fav:-$0.02 42 7.6%
Und:$3.20
All:$3.18

Leeds
Fav:-$0.94 42 7.5%
Und:$4.07
All:$3.13

Wolves
Fav:-$6.18 42 4.7%
Und:$8.15
All:$1.97

Burnley
Fav:$0.70 43 3.0%
Und:$0.60
All:$1.30

Arsenal
Fav:-$4.85 41 0.0%
Und:$5.85
All:$0.00

Man City
Fav:-$1.18 42 -2.8%
Und:$0.00
All:-$1.18

Watford
Fav:-$1.00 8 -16.3%
Und:-$0.30
All:-$1.30

Chelsea
Fav:-$3.06 41 -4.9%
Und:$1.05
All:-$2.01

Newcastle
Fav:$1.20 41 -5.0%
Und:-$3.25
All:-$2.05

Brighton
Fav:-$9.81 42 -8.8%
Und:$6.10
All:-$3.71

Liverpool
Fav:-$3.71 41 -16.4%
Und:-$3.00
All:-$6.71

Norwich
Fav:-$1.00 8 -100.0%
Und:-$7.00
All:-$8.00

Crystal Palace
Fav:$4.85 42 -22.5%
Und:-$14.28
All:-$9.43

Southampton
Fav:$0.34 41 -32.7%
Und:-$13.73
All:-$13.39
 

Betting Value Index: Home

Team Betting Value # Profit

Tottenham
Fav:$2.92 21 33.9%
Und:$4.20
All:$7.12

Leicester
Fav:-$2.88 21 5.1%
Und:$3.95
All:$1.07

West Ham
Fav:$2.76 21 3.6%
Und:-$2.00
All:$0.76

Brentford
Fav:$0.00 4 -5.0%
Und:-$0.20
All:-$0.20

Wolves
Fav:-$4.33 21 -2.3%
Und:$3.85
All:-$0.48

Watford
Fav:-$1.00 4 -15.0%
Und:$0.40
All:-$0.60

Southampton
Fav:$2.34 21 -4.3%
Und:-$3.25
All:-$0.91

Aston Villa
Fav:-$4.30 21 -9.2%
Und:$2.37
All:-$1.93

Brighton
Fav:-$6.18 21 -14.2%
Und:$3.20
All:-$2.98

Man City
Fav:-$3.15 21 -15.0%
Und:$0.00
All:-$3.15

Everton
Fav:-$3.73 20 -18.1%
Und:-$1.50
All:-$3.61

Arsenal
Fav:-$3.58 21 -18.2%
Und:-$0.25
All:-$3.83

Norwich
Fav:-$1.00 4 -100.0%
Und:-$3.00
All:-$4.00

Crystal Palace
Fav:$0.35 21 -19.4%
Und:-$4.43
All:-$4.08

Chelsea
Fav:-$2.38 20 -21.9%
Und:-$2.00
All:-$4.38

Man Utd
Fav:-$1.48 21 -21.3%
Und:-$3.00
All:-$4.48

Leeds
Fav:-$2.07 21 -24.1%
Und:-$3.00
All:-$5.07

Newcastle
Fav:$1.20 20 -29.8%
Und:-$7.15
All:-$5.95

Liverpool
Fav:-$4.89 21 -32.8%
Und:-$2.00
All:-$6.89

Burnley
Fav:$0.00 22 -42.7%
Und:-$9.40
All:-$9.40
 

Betting Value Index: Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

Everton
Fav:-$1.05 21 65.0%
Und:$14.70
All:$13.65

Aston Villa
Fav:-$4.18 22 58.7%
Und:$17.09
All:$12.91

Burnley
Fav:$0.70 21 51.0%
Und:$10.00
All:$10.70

Leeds
Fav:$1.13 21 39.0%
Und:$7.07
All:$8.20

Man Utd
Fav:$1.46 21 36.5%
Und:$6.20
All:$7.66

West Ham
Fav:$6.06 21 32.2%
Und:$0.70
All:$6.76

Brentford
Fav:$0.00 4 143.8%
Und:$5.75
All:$5.75

Newcastle
Fav:$0.00 21 18.6%
Und:$3.90
All:$3.90

Arsenal
Fav:-$1.27 20 19.2%
Und:$6.10
All:$3.83

Leicester
Fav:-$1.58 21 18.0%
Und:$5.35
All:$3.77

Wolves
Fav:-$1.85 21 11.7%
Und:$4.30
All:$2.45

Chelsea
Fav:-$0.68 21 11.3%
Und:$3.05
All:$2.37

Man City
Fav:$1.97 21 9.4%
Und:$0.00
All:$1.97

Liverpool
Fav:$1.18 20 0.9%
Und:-$1.00
All:$0.18

Watford
Fav:$0.00 4 -17.5%
Und:-$0.70
All:-$0.70

Brighton
Fav:-$3.63 21 -3.5%
Und:$2.90
All:-$0.73

Tottenham
Fav:-$1.05 21 -15.7%
Und:-$2.25
All:-$3.30

Norwich
Fav:$0.00 4 -100.0%
Und:-$4.00
All:-$4.00

Crystal Palace
Fav:$4.50 21 -25.5%
Und:-$9.85
All:-$5.35

Southampton
Fav:-$2.00 20 -62.4%
Und:-$10.48
All:-$12.48
 

Other Resources

Watch EPL games live and on demand with Kayo Sports.

The interactive EPL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The EPL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The EPL Poisson distribution tool applies the Poisson distribution to any pair of teams and chosen timeframe. Outcome probabilities predicted by the model along with their respective fair odds are provided.

The EPL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The EPL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The EPL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

The EPL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

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