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EPL - Betting Value Index

EPL

The following table ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market. Closing odds primarily from bet365 are used.

The figures represent the net profit had you wagered $1.00 on the corresponding team in the head-to-head market for each game.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.

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Notes:

Fav = favourite, meaning games where the team was at shorter odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
Und = underdog, meaning games where the team was at longer odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
All = all fixtures (favourite, underdog and equal favourite)
# = the number of games
Profit = net returns over all of the games divided by the number of games: net profit / games

The favourite + underdog stats may not always correspond to the All statitisics because All includes fixtures where the team started as the joint favourite, while Fav and Und do not.

Betting Value Index: Home & Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

Aston Villa
Fav:$11.57 40 52.1%
Und:9.25
All:$20.82

Wolves
Fav:$-3.39 40 40.9%
Und:19.75
All:$16.36

West Ham
Fav:$5.71 40 22.7%
Und:3.35
All:$9.06

Bournemouth
Fav:$4.11 39 17.4%
Und:2.67
All:$6.78

Liverpool
Fav:$3.57 41 1.4%
Und:-3.00
All:$0.57

Man City
Fav:$0.04 39 0.1%
Und:0.00
All:$0.04

Man Utd
Fav:$2.25 40 -0.4%
Und:-2.40
All:$-0.15

Arsenal
Fav:$-2.02 40 -0.6%
Und:1.80
All:$-0.22

Newcastle
Fav:$-0.94 41 -4.2%
Und:0.23
All:$-1.71

Fulham
Fav:$5.61 39 -4.8%
Und:-7.50
All:$-1.89

Nottm Forest
Fav:$0.11 40 -6.7%
Und:-2.80
All:$-2.69

Luton
Fav:$-1.00 25 -12.8%
Und:-2.20
All:$-3.20

Brentford
Fav:$-0.46 41 -8.2%
Und:-2.90
All:$-3.36

Tottenham
Fav:$0.92 38 -8.9%
Und:-4.30
All:$-3.38

Everton
Fav:$-3.49 40 -11.9%
Und:-1.27
All:$-4.76

Brighton
Fav:$-4.01 42 -14.9%
Und:-3.75
All:$-6.26

Crystal Palace
Fav:$4.17 40 -23.1%
Und:-13.40
All:$-9.23

Sheffield Utd
Fav:$-1.00 26 -49.0%
Und:-11.75
All:$-12.75

Chelsea
Fav:$-6.98 39 -41.2%
Und:-9.10
All:$-16.08

Burnley
Fav:$1.30 26 -63.3%
Und:-17.75
All:$-16.45
 

Betting Value Index: Home

Team Betting Value # Profit

Aston Villa
Fav:$8.17 20 87.1%
Und:9.25
All:$17.42

Wolves
Fav:$-0.39 20 80.3%
Und:16.45
All:$16.06

Tottenham
Fav:$0.81 19 23.7%
Und:3.70
All:$4.51

Newcastle
Fav:$1.72 20 20.8%
Und:2.43
All:$4.15

Fulham
Fav:$6.06 19 21.4%
Und:-2.00
All:$4.06

Nottm Forest
Fav:$0.11 20 16.6%
Und:3.20
All:$3.31

Liverpool
Fav:$4.18 21 15.1%
Und:-1.00
All:$3.18

Arsenal
Fav:$0.64 21 12.1%
Und:1.90
All:$2.54

Bournemouth
Fav:$1.51 19 8.6%
Und:0.12
All:$1.63

Man Utd
Fav:$0.51 20 6.6%
Und:0.80
All:$1.31

Man City
Fav:$0.85 20 4.3%
Und:0.00
All:$0.85

West Ham
Fav:$2.88 20 2.4%
Und:-2.40
All:$0.48

Luton
Fav:$-1.00 13 3.5%
Und:1.45
All:$0.45

Brighton
Fav:$-1.39 21 -9.0%
Und:-2.00
All:$-1.89

Brentford
Fav:$-1.39 20 -20.5%
Und:-2.70
All:$-4.09

Sheffield Utd
Fav:$-1.00 13 -34.6%
Und:-3.50
All:$-4.50

Crystal Palace
Fav:$1.02 19 -26.2%
Und:-6.00
All:$-4.98

Everton
Fav:$-2.44 19 -38.6%
Und:-4.90
All:$-7.34

Chelsea
Fav:$-6.03 20 -55.2%
Und:-5.00
All:$-11.03

Burnley
Fav:$-0.30 13 -86.9%
Und:-11.00
All:$-11.30
 

Betting Value Index: Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

West Ham
Fav:$2.83 20 42.9%
Und:5.75
All:$8.58

Bournemouth
Fav:$2.60 20 25.8%
Und:2.55
All:$5.15

Aston Villa
Fav:$3.40 20 17.0%
Und:0.00
All:$3.40

Everton
Fav:$-1.05 21 12.3%
Und:3.63
All:$2.58

Brentford
Fav:$0.93 21 3.5%
Und:-0.20
All:$0.73

Wolves
Fav:$-3.00 20 1.5%
Und:3.30
All:$0.30

Man City
Fav:$-0.81 19 -4.3%
Und:0.00
All:$-0.81

Man Utd
Fav:$1.74 20 -7.3%
Und:-3.20
All:$-1.46

Liverpool
Fav:$-0.61 20 -13.1%
Und:-2.00
All:$-2.61

Arsenal
Fav:$-2.66 19 -14.5%
Und:-0.10
All:$-2.76

Luton
Fav:$0.00 12 -30.4%
Und:-3.65
All:$-3.65

Crystal Palace
Fav:$3.15 21 -20.2%
Und:-7.40
All:$-4.25

Brighton
Fav:$-2.62 21 -20.8%
Und:-1.75
All:$-4.37

Chelsea
Fav:$-0.95 19 -26.6%
Und:-4.10
All:$-5.05

Burnley
Fav:$1.60 13 -39.6%
Und:-6.75
All:$-5.15

Newcastle
Fav:$-2.66 21 -27.9%
Und:-2.20
All:$-5.86

Fulham
Fav:$-0.45 20 -29.8%
Und:-5.50
All:$-5.95

Nottm Forest
Fav:$0.00 20 -30.0%
Und:-6.00
All:$-6.00

Tottenham
Fav:$0.11 19 -41.5%
Und:-8.00
All:$-7.89

Sheffield Utd
Fav:$0.00 13 -63.5%
Und:-8.25
All:$-8.25
 

Other EPL Resources

A preview with betting tips for this round has been published on AusSportsBetting.com.

The interactive EPL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The EPL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The EPL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The EPL Poisson distribution tool applies the Poisson distribution to any pair of teams and chosen timeframe. Outcome probabilities predicted by the model along with their respective fair odds are provided.

The EPL score statistics provides goals for, goals against, goal difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The EPL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The EPL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The EPL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

EPL clean sheets displays each team's clean sheets tally for the date range of your choosing.

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