EPL - Betting Value Index

The following table ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market. Closing odds primarily from bet365 are used.

The figures represent the net profit had you wagered $1.00 on the corresponding team in the head-to-head market for each game.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.

Filter by Date

Notes:

Fav = favourite, meaning games where the team was at shorter odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
Und = underdog, meaning games where the team was at longer odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
All = all fixtures (favourite, underdog and equal favourite)
# = the number of games
Profit = net returns over all of the games divided by the number of games: net profit / games

The favourite + underdog stats may not always correspond to the All statitisics because All includes fixtures where the team started as the joint favourite, while Fav and Und do not.

Betting Value Index: Home & Away

Team	Betting Value		#	Profit
Everton	Fav:	-$0.95	36	41.0%
	Und:	$14.10
	All:	$14.77
Leicester	Fav:	-$2.76	37	30.9%
	Und:	$14.20
	All:	$11.44
Burnley	Fav:	$3.90	37	24.3%
	Und:	$5.10
	All:	$9.00
West Ham	Fav:	$3.16	36	24.5%
	Und:	$5.65
	All:	$8.81
Aston Villa	Fav:	-$0.69	36	14.5%
	Und:	$5.91
	All:	$5.22
Southampton	Fav:	-$2.19	36	12.2%
	Und:	$6.57
	All:	$4.38
Arsenal	Fav:	-$5.51	37	8.1%
	Und:	$9.52
	All:	$3.01
Crystal Palace	Fav:	$3.75	37	6.1%
	Und:	-$1.48
	All:	$2.27
Newcastle	Fav:	-$0.23	36	1.6%
	Und:	$0.80
	All:	$0.57
Wolves	Fav:	-$4.65	37	-0.3%
	Und:	$4.55
	All:	-$0.10
Tottenham	Fav:	-$1.80	36	-0.8%
	Und:	$1.50
	All:	-$0.30
Leeds	Fav:	-$0.06	26	-1.4%
	Und:	-$0.30
	All:	-$0.36
Man Utd	Fav:	-$1.05	37	-1.5%
	Und:	$0.50
	All:	-$0.55
Man City	Fav:	-$1.03	38	-2.7%
	Und:	$0.00
	All:	-$1.03
Chelsea	Fav:	-$3.99	37	-6.9%
	Und:	$1.45
	All:	-$2.54
Sheffield Utd	Fav:	-$1.99	38	-11.8%
	Und:	-$2.50
	All:	-$4.49
Liverpool	Fav:	-$5.82	37	-23.8%
	Und:	-$3.00
	All:	-$8.82
Brighton	Fav:	-$10.80	36	-25.0%
	Und:	$1.80
	All:	-$9.00
Fulham	Fav:	-$2.60	27	-47.0%
	Und:	-$10.10
	All:	-$12.70
West Brom	Fav:	$0.60	27	-51.5%
	Und:	-$14.50
	All:	-$13.90

Betting Value Index: Home

Team	Betting Value		#	Profit
Southampton	Fav:	-$1.54	18	37.3%
	Und:	$8.25
	All:	$6.71
West Ham	Fav:	$0.76	18	33.1%
	Und:	$5.20
	All:	$5.96
Sheffield Utd	Fav:	$1.01	19	23.7%
	Und:	$3.50
	All:	$4.51
Aston Villa	Fav:	-$0.88	17	21.7%
	Und:	$4.57
	All:	$3.69
Tottenham	Fav:	$1.22	18	17.3%
	Und:	$1.90
	All:	$3.12
Arsenal	Fav:	-$2.79	18	10.9%
	Und:	$4.75
	All:	$1.96
Wolves	Fav:	-$2.00	18	10.3%
	Und:	$3.85
	All:	$1.85
Man City	Fav:	$1.00	20	5.0%
	Und:	$0.00
	All:	$1.00
Chelsea	Fav:	-$0.33	18	4.8%
	Und:	$1.20
	All:	$0.87
Leicester	Fav:	-$1.48	18	4.8%
	Und:	$2.35
	All:	$0.87
Man Utd	Fav:	-$4.39	18	-10.5%
	Und:	$2.50
	All:	-$1.89
Everton	Fav:	-$2.95	18	-15.7%
	Und:	-$1.50
	All:	-$2.83
Liverpool	Fav:	-$1.94	19	-15.5%
	Und:	-$1.00
	All:	-$2.94
Burnley	Fav:	$1.00	19	-17.4%
	Und:	-$4.30
	All:	-$3.30
Newcastle	Fav:	-$0.23	18	-18.8%
	Und:	-$3.15
	All:	-$3.38
Leeds	Fav:	-$2.19	13	-32.2%
	Und:	-$2.00
	All:	-$4.19
Crystal Palace	Fav:	$0.75	19	-28.8%
	Und:	-$6.23
	All:	-$5.48
West Brom	Fav:	$0.60	14	-49.3%
	Und:	-$7.50
	All:	-$6.90
Fulham	Fav:	$1.40	14	-68.6%
	Und:	-$11.00
	All:	-$9.60
Brighton	Fav:	-$8.00	18	-65.0%
	Und:	-$3.70
	All:	-$11.70

Betting Value Index: Away

Team	Betting Value		#	Profit
Everton	Fav:	$2.00	18	97.8%
	Und:	$15.60
	All:	$17.60
Burnley	Fav:	$2.90	18	68.3%
	Und:	$9.40
	All:	$12.30
Leicester	Fav:	-$1.28	19	55.6%
	Und:	$11.85
	All:	$10.57
Crystal Palace	Fav:	$3.00	18	43.1%
	Und:	$4.75
	All:	$7.75
Newcastle	Fav:	$0.00	18	21.9%
	Und:	$3.95
	All:	$3.95
Leeds	Fav:	$2.13	13	29.5%
	Und:	$1.70
	All:	$3.83
West Ham	Fav:	$2.40	18	15.8%
	Und:	$0.45
	All:	$2.85
Brighton	Fav:	-$2.80	18	15.0%
	Und:	$5.50
	All:	$2.70
Aston Villa	Fav:	$0.19	19	8.1%
	Und:	$1.34
	All:	$1.53
Man Utd	Fav:	$3.34	19	7.1%
	Und:	-$2.00
	All:	$1.34
Arsenal	Fav:	-$2.72	19	5.5%
	Und:	$4.77
	All:	$1.05
Wolves	Fav:	-$2.65	19	-10.3%
	Und:	$0.70
	All:	-$1.95
Man City	Fav:	-$2.03	18	-11.3%
	Und:	$0.00
	All:	-$2.03
Southampton	Fav:	-$0.65	18	-12.9%
	Und:	-$1.68
	All:	-$2.33
Fulham	Fav:	-$4.00	13	-23.8%
	Und:	$0.90
	All:	-$3.10
Chelsea	Fav:	-$3.66	19	-17.9%
	Und:	$0.25
	All:	-$3.41
Tottenham	Fav:	-$3.02	18	-19.0%
	Und:	-$0.40
	All:	-$3.42
Liverpool	Fav:	-$3.88	18	-32.7%
	Und:	-$2.00
	All:	-$5.88
West Brom	Fav:	$0.00	13	-53.8%
	Und:	-$7.00
	All:	-$7.00
Sheffield Utd	Fav:	-$3.00	19	-47.4%
	Und:	-$6.00
	All:	-$9.00

Other Resources

Watch EPL games live and on demand with Kayo Sports.

A preview with betting tips for this round has been published on AusSportsBetting.com.

The interactive EPL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The EPL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The EPL Poisson distribution tool applies the Poisson distribution to any pair of teams and chosen timeframe. Outcome probabilities predicted by the model along with their respective fair odds are provided.