AFL - Betting Value Index

AFL

The following table ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market. Closing odds primarily from bet365 are used. If you would like to compare betting value in line markets, check out the the AFL line betting table.

The figures represent the net profit had you wagered $1.00 on the corresponding team in the head-to-head market for each game.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is June 27, 2009.

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Notes:

Fav = favourite, meaning games where the team was at shorter odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
Und = underdog, meaning games where the team was at longer odds in the head-to-head market than its opponent
All = all fixtures (favourite, underdog and equal favourite)
# = the number of games
Profit = net returns over all of the games divided by the number of games: net profit / games

The favourite + underdog stats may not always correspond to the All statitisics because All includes fixtures where the team started as the joint favourite, while Fav and Und do not.

Betting Value Index: Home & Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

GWS
Fav:-$1.08 24 46.4%
Und:$12.23
All:$11.14

Melbourne
Fav:$1.99 25 32.6%
Und:$6.15
All:$8.14

Sydney
Fav:-$0.69 23 34.0%
Und:$9.52
All:$7.83

Hawthorn
Fav:-$1.82 22 30.4%
Und:$8.50
All:$6.68

St Kilda
Fav:-$3.56 24 18.6%
Und:$7.09
All:$4.46

Western Bulldogs
Fav:-$2.92 27 8.9%
Und:$5.33
All:$2.41

Port Adelaide
Fav:$2.44 26 6.9%
Und:-$0.65
All:$1.79

Essendon
Fav:$0.82 23 5.7%
Und:$0.50
All:$1.32

Geelong
Fav:$3.36 29 -5.0%
Und:-$4.81
All:-$1.45

Brisbane
Fav:-$2.30 26 -6.2%
Und:$0.70
All:-$1.60

Fremantle
Fav:$1.89 22 -10.5%
Und:-$4.13
All:-$2.31

Gold Coast
Fav:-$0.24 22 -12.1%
Und:-$2.43
All:-$2.67

Adelaide
Fav:$0.15 22 -15.1%
Und:-$3.47
All:-$3.32

Richmond
Fav:-$6.39 26 -15.5%
Und:$2.37
All:-$4.02

Collingwood
Fav:-$6.67 24 -23.4%
Und:$2.05
All:-$5.62

West Coast
Fav:-$4.64 23 -25.3%
Und:-$2.10
All:-$5.81

North Melbourne
Fav:$0.80 22 -34.1%
Und:-$8.30
All:-$7.50

Carlton
Fav:-$0.30 22 -35.1%
Und:-$7.43
All:-$7.73
 

Betting Value Index: Home

Team Betting Value # Profit

Adelaide
Fav:-$0.30 11 36.8%
Und:$4.35
All:$4.05

Hawthorn
Fav:-$0.50 11 29.1%
Und:$3.70
All:$3.20

Melbourne
Fav:$0.37 14 20.7%
Und:$2.53
All:$2.90

Richmond
Fav:-$1.43 13 21.8%
Und:$4.27
All:$2.84

Fremantle
Fav:$2.31 11 24.5%
Und:-$0.55
All:$2.69

Geelong
Fav:$2.74 13 13.4%
Und:-$1.00
All:$1.74

Sydney
Fav:-$0.09 12 12.8%
Und:$1.62
All:$1.53

Brisbane
Fav:-$1.23 14 8.4%
Und:$2.40
All:$1.17

St Kilda
Fav:-$2.56 12 3.8%
Und:$3.02
All:$0.46

West Coast
Fav:-$2.07 12 -8.3%
Und:$0.15
All:-$0.99

Gold Coast
Fav:-$0.24 11 -12.2%
Und:-$1.10
All:-$1.34

Essendon
Fav:-$0.42 11 -12.9%
Und:-$1.00
All:-$1.42

Port Adelaide
Fav:-$0.46 15 -9.7%
Und:-$1.00
All:-$1.46

Western Bulldogs
Fav:-$1.58 12 -13.2%
Und:$0.00
All:-$1.58

GWS
Fav:-$1.95 11 -32.9%
Und:-$1.67
All:-$3.62

Carlton
Fav:-$2.81 11 -61.9%
Und:-$4.00
All:-$6.81

North Melbourne
Fav:$0.80 11 -67.7%
Und:-$8.25
All:-$7.45

Collingwood
Fav:-$6.00 11 -80.2%
Und:-$1.82
All:-$8.82
 

Betting Value Index: Away

Team Betting Value # Profit

GWS
Fav:$0.87 13 113.6%
Und:$13.90
All:$14.77

Sydney
Fav:-$0.60 11 57.3%
Und:$7.90
All:$6.30

Melbourne
Fav:$1.62 11 47.6%
Und:$3.62
All:$5.24

St Kilda
Fav:-$1.00 12 33.3%
Und:$4.07
All:$4.00

Western Bulldogs
Fav:-$1.34 15 26.6%
Und:$5.33
All:$3.99

Hawthorn
Fav:-$1.32 11 31.6%
Und:$4.80
All:$3.48

Port Adelaide
Fav:$2.90 11 29.5%
Und:$0.35
All:$3.25

Collingwood
Fav:-$0.67 13 24.6%
Und:$3.87
All:$3.20

Essendon
Fav:$1.24 12 22.8%
Und:$1.50
All:$2.74

North Melbourne
Fav:$0.00 11 -0.5%
Und:-$0.05
All:-$0.05

Carlton
Fav:$2.51 11 -8.4%
Und:-$3.43
All:-$0.92

Gold Coast
Fav:$0.00 11 -12.1%
Und:-$1.33
All:-$1.33

Brisbane
Fav:-$1.07 12 -23.1%
Und:-$1.70
All:-$2.77

Geelong
Fav:$0.62 16 -19.9%
Und:-$3.81
All:-$3.19

West Coast
Fav:-$2.57 11 -43.8%
Und:-$2.25
All:-$4.82

Fremantle
Fav:-$0.42 11 -45.5%
Und:-$3.58
All:-$5.00

Richmond
Fav:-$4.96 13 -52.8%
Und:-$1.90
All:-$6.86

Adelaide
Fav:$0.45 11 -67.0%
Und:-$7.82
All:-$7.37
 

Other Resources

Watch AFL games live and on demand with Kayo Sports.

The interactive AFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The AFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The AFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The AFL predictability index ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines using pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The AFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The AFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The AFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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