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NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Sea Eagles 8069.1
2 Storm 60810.0
3 Knights 90510.4
4 Tigers 301011.3
5 Panthers 70711.5
6 Dolphins 80612.0
7 Warriors 50912.6
8 Eels 401012.9
9 Broncos 70713.3
10 Titans 80513.9
11 Cowboys 60913.9
12 Bulldogs 100314.6
13 Raiders 70615.2
14 Roosters 80615.9
15 Rabbitohs 40916.1
16 Sharks 100417.6
17 Dragons 70720.7

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Sea Eagles 70111.0
2 Storm 30512.5
3 Knights 40313.2
4 Tigers 20413.5
5 Panthers 4026.7
6 Dolphins 30412.5
7 Warriors 2067.8
8 Eels 40411.9
9 Broncos 40315.9
10 Titans 40314.2
11 Cowboys 2049.8
12 Bulldogs 60017.7
13 Raiders 30418.4
14 Roosters 30315.7
15 Rabbitohs 30412.4
16 Sharks 50217.1
17 Dragons 40222.8

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Sea Eagles 1056.5
2 Storm 3036.7
3 Knights 5027.5
4 Tigers 1069.4
5 Panthers 30515.1
6 Dolphins 50211.5
7 Warriors 30319.0
8 Eels 00614.3
9 Broncos 30410.6
10 Titans 40213.5
11 Cowboys 40516.6
12 Bulldogs 40311.9
13 Raiders 40211.5
14 Roosters 50316.1
15 Rabbitohs 10520.5
16 Sharks 50218.1
17 Dragons 30519.1

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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