NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Raiders 50912.1
2 Titans 42612.8
3 Dragons 301013.1
4 Bulldogs 301014.3
5 Rabbitohs 60715.2
6 Eels 70715.4
7 Sea Eagles 90416.0
8 Knights 80516.0
9 Broncos 41916.6
10 Roosters 80516.9
11 Sharks 80517.2
12 Warriors 81417.3
13 Cowboys 80617.5
14 Dolphins 90419.4
15 Tigers 70519.7
16 Panthers 80520.4
17 Storm 50920.7

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Raiders 2059.4
2 Titans 1128.9
3 Dragons 00619.4
4 Bulldogs 20414.0
5 Rabbitohs 40315.1
6 Eels 30416.8
7 Sea Eagles 40313.1
8 Knights 30316.4
9 Broncos 20516.9
10 Roosters 40211.4
11 Sharks 60219.1
12 Warriors 31319.1
13 Cowboys 40317.0
14 Dolphins 40321.4
15 Tigers 40319.9
16 Panthers 30313.9
17 Storm 30424.2

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Raiders 30414.9
2 Titans 31414.7
3 Dragons 3047.7
4 Bulldogs 10614.6
5 Rabbitohs 20415.3
6 Eels 40314.1
7 Sea Eagles 50119.4
8 Knights 50215.7
9 Broncos 21416.4
10 Roosters 40321.6
11 Sharks 20314.1
12 Warriors 50115.1
13 Cowboys 40318.0
14 Dolphins 50117.0
15 Tigers 30219.4
16 Panthers 50226.0
17 Storm 20517.2

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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