NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Titans 100148.6
2 Warriors 1101310.2
3 Panthers 180910.4
4 Sharks 1501110.7
5 Dragons 1401010.8
6 Bulldogs 801611.6
7 Raiders 1201412.7
8 Rabbitohs 1701013.2
9 Knights 901513.9
10 Cowboys 170914.2
11 Roosters 1301214.7
12 Storm 901614.7
13 Tigers 1101314.8
14 Sea Eagles 1101315.5
15 Broncos 1301117.3
16 Eels 1301517.4

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Titans 6067.6
2 Warriors 6069.0
3 Panthers 11049.3
4 Sharks 60811.4
5 Dragons 100211.9
6 Bulldogs 40810.8
7 Raiders 6068.3
8 Rabbitohs 90315.1
9 Knights 30917.8
10 Cowboys 80515.2
11 Roosters 80515.7
12 Storm 50814.0
13 Tigers 60611.8
14 Sea Eagles 70514.8
15 Broncos 70519.0
16 Eels 60719.6

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Titans 4089.6
2 Warriors 50711.3
3 Panthers 70511.8
4 Sharks 9039.8
5 Dragons 4089.8
6 Bulldogs 40812.4
7 Raiders 60816.4
8 Rabbitohs 80711.8
9 Knights 60610.0
10 Cowboys 90413.1
11 Roosters 50713.5
12 Storm 40815.4
13 Tigers 50717.8
14 Sea Eagles 40816.2
15 Broncos 60615.7
16 Eels 70815.6

Other Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

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