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NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Storm 80109.2
2 Sea Eagles 110710.7
3 Knights 110710.9
4 Eels 401411.6
5 Panthers 80911.6
6 Dolphins 100712.1
7 Bulldogs 110612.3
8 Tigers 601312.3
9 Cowboys 801012.9
10 Broncos 801013.1
11 Raiders 90813.9
12 Warriors 701214.2
13 Rabbitohs 701014.3
14 Roosters 110715.8
15 Titans 110616.5
16 Sharks 110617.8
17 Dragons 90820.0

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Storm 40612.2
2 Sea Eagles 90113.9
3 Knights 50412.4
4 Eels 40611.3
5 Panthers 4048.9
6 Dolphins 40411.8
7 Bulldogs 70114.6
8 Tigers 40413.6
9 Cowboys 3057.9
10 Broncos 40514.3
11 Raiders 40514.9
12 Warriors 3078.2
13 Rabbitohs 50411.1
14 Roosters 60315.3
15 Titans 60318.5
16 Sharks 60318.9
17 Dragons 50222.6

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Storm 4045.5
2 Sea Eagles 2066.6
3 Knights 6039.5
4 Eels 00811.9
5 Panthers 40514.1
6 Dolphins 60312.5
7 Bulldogs 40510.3
8 Tigers 20911.4
9 Cowboys 50517.0
10 Broncos 40511.8
11 Raiders 50312.6
12 Warriors 40520.8
13 Rabbitohs 20618.0
14 Roosters 50416.3
15 Titans 50314.3
16 Sharks 50316.5
17 Dragons 40618.1

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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