NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Knights 110812.1
2 Titans 82812.5
3 Dragons 701112.8
4 Roosters 120613.4
5 Raiders 801113.4
6 Rabbitohs 801013.6
7 Eels 90914.4
8 Broncos 511214.8
9 Warriors 111615.3
10 Bulldogs 701115.7
11 Sea Eagles 100916.2
12 Cowboys 110816.3
13 Storm 701217.6
14 Tigers 901018.0
15 Sharks 110719.3
16 Panthers 90919.4
17 Dolphins 110719.4

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Knights 50511.4
2 Titans 31311.3
3 Dragons 10719.8
4 Roosters 7029.4
5 Raiders 40611.0
6 Rabbitohs 50412.5
7 Eels 50515.8
8 Broncos 20714.1
9 Warriors 41416.6
10 Bulldogs 50516.3
11 Sea Eagles 50515.2
12 Cowboys 60317.1
13 Storm 40520.7
14 Tigers 50516.6
15 Sharks 60317.3
16 Panthers 40414.8
17 Dolphins 50523.9

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Knights 60313.0
2 Titans 51513.3
3 Dragons 6047.3
4 Roosters 50417.3
5 Raiders 40516.1
6 Rabbitohs 30614.7
7 Eels 40412.6
8 Broncos 31515.6
9 Warriors 70214.1
10 Bulldogs 20614.9
11 Sea Eagles 50417.3
12 Cowboys 50515.7
13 Storm 30714.7
14 Tigers 40519.7
15 Sharks 50421.3
16 Panthers 50523.1
17 Dolphins 60213.9

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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