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NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Rabbitohs 70710.7
2 Dragons 70611.7
3 Warriors 90411.7
4 Sharks 80612.5
5 Raiders 110313.3
6 Tigers 70613.5
7 Bulldogs 80513.8
8 Knights 60813.9
9 Eels 50814.5
10 Cowboys 60715.1
11 Panthers 50815.7
12 Storm 60616.0
13 Roosters 60716.1
14 Titans 40916.2
15 Broncos 40918.3
16 Sea Eagles 50918.4
17 Dolphins 90520.4

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Rabbitohs 40410.9
2 Dragons 5018.2
3 Warriors 50110.3
4 Sharks 50210.9
5 Raiders 60113.9
6 Tigers 3048.6
7 Bulldogs 40217.3
8 Knights 30412.5
9 Eels 20415.5
10 Cowboys 30418.4
11 Panthers 30417.5
12 Storm 40316.6
13 Roosters 30421.6
14 Titans 20416.8
15 Broncos 30316.0
16 Sea Eagles 30417.1
17 Dolphins 40220.3

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Rabbitohs 30310.5
2 Dragons 20514.8
3 Warriors 40312.9
4 Sharks 30414.1
5 Raiders 50212.6
6 Tigers 40219.2
7 Bulldogs 40310.8
8 Knights 30415.4
9 Eels 30413.6
10 Cowboys 30311.3
11 Panthers 20413.7
12 Storm 20315.1
13 Roosters 3039.7
14 Titans 20515.6
15 Broncos 10620.4
16 Sea Eagles 20519.8
17 Dolphins 50320.4

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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