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NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Titans 110139.9
2 Dragons 1301110.3
3 Raiders 1001511.3
4 Roosters 1201411.7
5 Dolphins 1401011.9
6 Sea Eagles 1201212.2
7 Panthers 1401312.2
8 Tigers 1101312.4
9 Bulldogs 1001412.6
10 Broncos 180912.7
11 Warriors 1601112.9
12 Rabbitohs 901513.4
13 Storm 1301413.8
14 Eels 901514.6
15 Knights 1601015.4
16 Sharks 1401115.5
17 Cowboys 1101318.0

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Titans 5079.1
2 Dragons 70512.3
3 Raiders 40812.3
4 Roosters 5079.4
5 Dolphins 70510.7
6 Sea Eagles 60613.1
7 Panthers 90614.2
8 Tigers 70510.5
9 Bulldogs 40813.0
10 Broncos 70715.4
11 Warriors 70611.1
12 Rabbitohs 201013.8
13 Storm 70614.6
14 Eels 40814.3
15 Knights 90413.9
16 Sharks 80514.8
17 Cowboys 50717.4

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Titans 60610.8
2 Dragons 6068.3
3 Raiders 60710.3
4 Roosters 70713.6
5 Dolphins 70513.1
6 Sea Eagles 60611.3
7 Panthers 5079.6
8 Tigers 40814.3
9 Bulldogs 60612.3
10 Broncos 11029.8
11 Warriors 90514.6
12 Rabbitohs 70512.9
13 Storm 60813.1
14 Eels 50714.9
15 Knights 70617.0
16 Sharks 60616.2
17 Cowboys 60618.5

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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