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NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Broncos 41312.1
2 Rabbitohs 40312.4
3 Dragons 10713.0
4 Titans 32213.5
5 Raiders 30513.8
6 Tigers 60113.8
7 Bulldogs 20515.9
8 Roosters 50217.0
9 Dolphins 30417.1
10 Sharks 30418.0
11 Sea Eagles 40318.1
12 Knights 40418.9
13 Cowboys 50319.1
14 Eels 30519.6
15 Warriors 41319.9
16 Panthers 60223.5
17 Storm 20625.6

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Broncos 20316.1
2 Rabbitohs 2025.8
3 Dragons 00421.6
4 Titans 1103.3
5 Raiders 1028.3
6 Tigers 30115.1
7 Bulldogs 10218.5
8 Roosters 20114.0
9 Dolphins 10318.1
10 Sharks 20221.6
11 Sea Eagles 10310.5
12 Knights 20220.9
13 Cowboys 30118.6
14 Eels 20219.0
15 Warriors 21219.2
16 Panthers 30021.3
17 Storm 10332.0

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Broncos 2105.5
2 Rabbitohs 20121.2
3 Dragons 1034.4
4 Titans 21217.6
5 Raiders 20317.0
6 Tigers 30012.0
7 Bulldogs 10314.0
8 Roosters 30119.3
9 Dolphins 20115.8
10 Sharks 10213.2
11 Sea Eagles 30028.3
12 Knights 20216.9
13 Cowboys 20219.6
14 Eels 10320.3
15 Warriors 20121.0
16 Panthers 30224.8
17 Storm 10319.3

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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