NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Rabbitohs 1033.3
2 Eels 1035.0
3 Sea Eagles 3007.5
4 Panthers 1027.5
5 Tigers 1037.8
6 Warriors 4009.0
7 Storm 2029.0
8 Knights 2029.8
9 Broncos 30110.0
10 Raiders 20210.3
11 Sharks 20211.3
12 Bulldogs 10311.8
13 Titans 20211.8
14 Roosters 10212.5
15 Cowboys 10312.5
16 Dolphins 40014.0
17 Dragons 10216.8

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Rabbitohs 0013.5
2 Eels 1026.5
3 Sea Eagles 2009.5
4 Panthers 1017.5
5 Tigers 00211.5
6 Warriors 2003.0
7 Storm 10111.5
8 Knights 10113.5
9 Broncos 20010.0
10 Raiders 1006.5
11 Sharks 0013.5
12 Bulldogs 0016.5
13 Titans 10010.5
14 Roosters 1014.5
15 Cowboys 10213.2
16 Dolphins 30014.8
17 Dragons 10120.5

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Rabbitohs 1023.2
2 Eels 0010.5
3 Sea Eagles 1003.5
4 Panthers 0017.5
5 Tigers 1014.0
6 Warriors 20015.0
7 Storm 1016.5
8 Knights 1016.0
9 Broncos 10110.0
10 Raiders 10211.5
11 Sharks 20113.8
12 Bulldogs 10213.5
13 Titans 10212.2
14 Roosters 00128.5
15 Cowboys 00110.5
16 Dolphins 10011.5
17 Dragons 0019.5

Other Resources

A preview with betting tips for this round has been published on AusSportsBetting.com.

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

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