NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Knights 170810.2
2 Storm 1401310.9
3 Panthers 1301411.4
4 Sea Eagles 1501111.5
5 Eels 901512.3
6 Rabbitohs 901512.3
7 Tigers 801612.8
8 Dolphins 1201213.2
9 Warriors 1001413.4
10 Bulldogs 1501013.7
11 Cowboys 1301314.0
12 Roosters 1401314.1
13 Raiders 1401014.3
14 Sharks 1601116.9
15 Broncos 901517.0
16 Titans 1401017.4
17 Dragons 1101318.6

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Knights 80411.2
2 Storm 70814.1
3 Panthers 7078.7
4 Sea Eagles 90313.5
5 Eels 60611.3
6 Rabbitohs 7059.9
7 Tigers 60614.8
8 Dolphins 60613.2
9 Warriors 3099.3
10 Bulldogs 80515.0
11 Cowboys 60710.7
12 Roosters 80514.2
13 Raiders 60615.3
14 Sharks 80515.5
15 Broncos 40816.1
16 Titans 70521.5
17 Dragons 60619.8

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Knights 9049.3
2 Storm 7057.0
3 Panthers 60714.3
4 Sea Eagles 6089.7
5 Eels 30913.3
6 Rabbitohs 201014.8
7 Tigers 201010.8
8 Dolphins 60613.2
9 Warriors 70517.4
10 Bulldogs 70512.3
11 Cowboys 70617.2
12 Roosters 60813.9
13 Raiders 80413.3
14 Sharks 80618.3
15 Broncos 50717.8
16 Titans 70513.3
17 Dragons 50717.4

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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