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NRL Predictability Index

NRL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Dragons 100810.0
2 Rabbitohs 901010.5
3 Sharks 100911.6
4 Warriors 100811.8
5 Raiders 130612.0
6 Knights 901012.4
7 Tigers 901012.9
8 Storm 801013.1
9 Cowboys 100913.1
10 Bulldogs 90913.3
11 Titans 601214.1
12 Eels 701114.2
13 Roosters 90914.8
14 Panthers 100815.2
15 Broncos 801015.2
16 Sea Eagles 801018.1
17 Dolphins 110718.9

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Dragons 6027.8
2 Rabbitohs 60410.3
3 Sharks 70210.6
4 Warriors 60312.5
5 Raiders 80212.9
6 Knights 50510.0
7 Tigers 4057.7
8 Storm 50415.7
9 Cowboys 60413.7
10 Bulldogs 50417.3
11 Titans 20613.0
12 Eels 30515.1
13 Roosters 50519.7
14 Panthers 60415.8
15 Broncos 50413.5
16 Sea Eagles 50415.6
17 Dolphins 60318.8

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Dragons 40611.8
2 Rabbitohs 30610.7
3 Sharks 30712.4
4 Warriors 40511.2
5 Raiders 50410.9
6 Knights 40515.2
7 Tigers 50517.6
8 Storm 30610.4
9 Cowboys 40512.5
10 Bulldogs 4059.3
11 Titans 40614.9
12 Eels 40613.5
13 Roosters 4048.8
14 Panthers 40414.4
15 Broncos 30616.9
16 Sea Eagles 30620.5
17 Dolphins 50419.1

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NRL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NRL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NRL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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