NRL Predictability Index

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Warriors	12	12	10.4
2	Dragons	13	11	11.5
3	Raiders	16	8	12.0
4	Sharks	14	10	12.3
5	Cowboys	13	11	12.6
6	Tigers	11	13	12.9
7	Rabbitohs	12	12	13.0
8	Titans	8	16	13.0
9	Storm	10	14	13.1
10	Bulldogs	12	12	14.5
11	Eels	11	13	14.7
12	Panthers	12	12	14.9
13	Knights	9	15	15.2
14	Broncos	13	11	15.5
15	Sea Eagles	10	14	17.3
16	Roosters	14	10	18.5
17	Dolphins	14	10	19.1

Home Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Warriors	6	6	10.5
2	Dragons	8	4	9.5
3	Raiders	10	2	11.8
4	Sharks	10	2	11.3
5	Cowboys	7	5	13.9
6	Tigers	6	6	10.1
7	Rabbitohs	8	4	12.8
8	Titans	4	8	11.8
9	Storm	6	6	16.2
10	Bulldogs	7	5	17.9
11	Eels	6	6	16.8
12	Panthers	6	6	14.3
13	Knights	5	7	12.3
14	Broncos	8	4	14.8
15	Sea Eagles	6	6	15.8
16	Roosters	7	5	20.1
17	Dolphins	8	4	20.8

Away Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Warriors	6	6	10.3
2	Dragons	5	7	13.4
3	Raiders	6	6	12.3
4	Sharks	4	8	13.3
5	Cowboys	6	6	11.3
6	Tigers	5	7	15.8
7	Rabbitohs	4	8	13.2
8	Titans	4	8	14.2
9	Storm	4	8	10.1
10	Bulldogs	5	7	11.0
11	Eels	5	7	12.6
12	Panthers	6	6	15.6
13	Knights	4	8	18.0
14	Broncos	5	7	16.2
15	Sea Eagles	4	8	18.9
16	Roosters	7	5	17.0
17	Dolphins	6	6	17.5

Other NRL Resources

The interactive NRL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NRL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NRL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NRL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NRL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NRL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.