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NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Indianapolis 9085.4
2 Cincinnati 10076.8
3 Kansas City 81117.4
4 LA Rams 11087.6
5 Jacksonville 9177.6
6 Baltimore 11178.0
7 Houston 9288.1
8 Pittsburgh 11078.4
9 Las Vegas 7198.4
10 Green Bay 9098.4
11 Minnesota 11169.0
12 Atlanta 61109.0
13 Seattle 6299.2
14 NY Jets 60119.3
15 Miami 70109.3
16 NY Giants 41129.3
17 Tennessee 20159.5
18 Chicago 8279.6
19 LA Chargers 12159.6
20 New England 7199.6
21 Cleveland 401310.2
22 San Francisco 501210.7
23 Washington 121710.9
24 Buffalo 120811.1
25 Philadelphia 140711.3
26 Denver 111611.4
27 Tampa Bay 100811.4
28 Detroit 120611.7
29 Arizona 110612.4
30 Dallas 71912.4
31 New Orleans 701012.9
32 Carolina 80914.1

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Indianapolis 5034.3
2 Cincinnati 3059.9
3 Kansas City 4064.6
4 LA Rams 5058.1
5 Jacksonville 4133.7
6 Baltimore 5139.9
7 Houston 4147.7
8 Pittsburgh 6028.6
9 Las Vegas 3147.2
10 Green Bay 50411.2
11 Minnesota 7028.6
12 Atlanta 3068.6
13 Seattle 2169.9
14 NY Jets 3057.5
15 Miami 30510.4
16 NY Giants 21610.3
17 Tennessee 0086.8
18 Chicago 6129.7
19 LA Chargers 5127.8
20 New England 3148.4
21 Cleveland 20611.6
22 San Francisco 4058.8
23 Washington 70210.2
24 Buffalo 70312.3
25 Philadelphia 8059.2
26 Denver 60211.9
27 Tampa Bay 50511.5
28 Detroit 50513.7
29 Arizona 60317.1
30 Dallas 30613.4
31 New Orleans 40514.7
32 Carolina 50410.5

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Indianapolis 4056.4
2 Cincinnati 7024.1
3 Kansas City 41510.3
4 LA Rams 6036.9
5 Jacksonville 50411.2
6 Baltimore 6046.4
7 Houston 5148.4
8 Pittsburgh 5058.2
9 Las Vegas 4059.6
10 Green Bay 4055.7
11 Minnesota 4149.3
12 Atlanta 3149.5
13 Seattle 4138.3
14 NY Jets 30610.8
15 Miami 4058.3
16 NY Giants 2068.3
17 Tennessee 20711.9
18 Chicago 2159.4
19 LA Chargers 70311.0
20 New England 40510.7
21 Cleveland 2079.1
22 San Francisco 10712.9
23 Washington 51511.5
24 Buffalo 50510.0
25 Philadelphia 60214.8
26 Denver 51411.0
27 Tampa Bay 50311.4
28 Detroit 7019.1
29 Arizona 5037.1
30 Dallas 41311.4
31 New Orleans 30510.9
32 Carolina 30518.1

Other NFL Resources

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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