NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Minnesota 6056.5
2 Washington 4077.5
3 Chicago 3268.1
4 Green Bay 10028.8
5 LA Chargers 5069.0
6 San Francisco 6059.3
7 Indianapolis 7059.4
8 Detroit 5159.7
9 Seattle 5069.7
10 Houston 50610.0
11 Jacksonville 40710.0
12 Pittsburgh 40710.2
13 Miami 61510.2
14 Tampa Bay 50610.7
15 NY Jets 31711.3
16 Baltimore 50611.3
17 Atlanta 50611.4
18 Dallas 90311.4
19 Kansas City 40711.5
20 Cleveland 50711.6
21 NY Giants 60511.8
22 Philadelphia 60611.9
23 LA Rams 40712.0
24 Denver 60512.5
25 Las Vegas 50612.7
26 Carolina 41712.8
27 New Orleans 50713.0
28 Tennessee 70513.4
29 New England 80414.3
30 Arizona 80314.9
31 Cincinnati 61414.9
32 Buffalo 61417.7

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Minnesota 2038.2
2 Washington 2048.1
3 Chicago 1134.0
4 Green Bay 5008.2
5 LA Chargers 2046.3
6 San Francisco 20413.0
7 Indianapolis 3046.6
8 Detroit 11312.1
9 Seattle 20310.5
10 Houston 3028.3
11 Jacksonville 2058.9
12 Pittsburgh 1059.1
13 Miami 30315.6
14 Tampa Bay 40112.9
15 NY Jets 20311.0
16 Baltimore 30311.5
17 Atlanta 10412.4
18 Dallas 40217.3
19 Kansas City 1058.7
20 Cleveland 20410.5
21 NY Giants 30313.6
22 Philadelphia 2033.7
23 LA Rams 20314.1
24 Denver 30314.5
25 Las Vegas 20413.2
26 Carolina 1149.2
27 New Orleans 20415.8
28 Tennessee 30314.8
29 New England 40316.3
30 Arizona 20310.1
31 Cincinnati 20313.2
32 Buffalo 21216.5

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Minnesota 4025.1
2 Washington 2036.9
3 Chicago 21311.6
4 Green Bay 5029.1
5 LA Chargers 30212.2
6 San Francisco 4014.8
7 Indianapolis 40113.3
8 Detroit 4027.7
9 Seattle 3039.0
10 Houston 20411.5
11 Jacksonville 20212.0
12 Pittsburgh 30211.5
13 Miami 3124.8
14 Tampa Bay 1058.9
15 NY Jets 11411.5
16 Baltimore 20311.1
17 Atlanta 40210.5
18 Dallas 5015.5
19 Kansas City 30214.8
20 Cleveland 30312.7
21 NY Giants 3029.6
22 Philadelphia 40317.8
23 LA Rams 20410.3
24 Denver 30210.0
25 Las Vegas 30212.2
26 Carolina 30316.5
27 New Orleans 30310.2
28 Tennessee 40212.0
29 New England 40111.5
30 Arizona 60018.8
31 Cincinnati 41116.3
32 Buffalo 40218.7

Other Resources

Watch NFL games live and on demand with Kayo Sports.

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

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