NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 NY Jets 5024.6
2 Miami 2046.3
3 Buffalo 4027.2
4 Washington 2047.3
5 Tennessee 2057.6
6 NY Giants 5027.6
7 Cleveland 5027.8
8 Pittsburgh 5027.9
9 Minnesota 5018.0
10 Denver 5028.1
11 Philadelphia 1068.4
12 Indianapolis 3048.6
13 Houston 2058.6
14 Detroit 2048.7
15 Seattle 3049.2
16 Cincinnati 4029.5
17 San Francisco 6019.8
18 Dallas 30410.1
19 Tampa Bay 20510.1
20 Baltimore 30410.1
21 Jacksonville 40210.2
22 Kansas City 30310.5
23 Las Vegas 50210.5
24 New England 40310.5
25 LA Rams 30410.8
26 New Orleans 30410.9
27 Green Bay 40411.0
28 Chicago 40311.8
29 Arizona 20512.2
30 LA Chargers 00614.0
31 Atlanta 40315.6
32 Carolina 30416.8

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 NY Jets 2013.5
2 Miami 0024.0
3 Buffalo 2019.8
4 Washington 1029.2
5 Tennessee 00410.3
6 NY Giants 3016.8
7 Cleveland 3006.5
8 Pittsburgh 3008.2
9 Minnesota 2017.2
10 Denver 3005.2
11 Philadelphia 0049.0
12 Indianapolis 1029.2
13 Houston 0049.0
14 Detroit 1022.8
15 Seattle 2029.0
16 Cincinnati 1015.0
17 San Francisco 4006.5
18 Dallas 1028.8
19 Tampa Bay 0047.0
20 Baltimore 00313.8
21 Jacksonville 30112.3
22 Kansas City 20111.8
23 Las Vegas 3015.5
24 New England 20111.5
25 LA Rams 10315.0
26 New Orleans 00411.8
27 Green Bay 30117.0
28 Chicago 3019.0
29 Arizona 00312.2
30 LA Chargers 00316.8
31 Atlanta 20212.3
32 Carolina 10220.8

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 NY Jets 3015.5
2 Miami 2027.5
3 Buffalo 2014.5
4 Washington 1025.5
5 Tennessee 2014.2
6 NY Giants 2018.8
7 Cleveland 2028.8
8 Pittsburgh 2027.8
9 Minnesota 3008.8
10 Denver 20210.3
11 Philadelphia 1027.5
12 Indianapolis 2028.3
13 Houston 2018.2
14 Detroit 10214.5
15 Seattle 1029.5
16 Cincinnati 30111.8
17 San Francisco 20114.2
18 Dallas 20211.0
19 Tampa Bay 20114.2
20 Baltimore 3017.3
21 Jacksonville 1016.0
22 Kansas City 1029.2
23 Las Vegas 20117.2
24 New England 2029.8
25 LA Rams 2015.2
26 New Orleans 3009.8
27 Green Bay 1035.0
28 Chicago 10215.5
29 Arizona 20212.3
30 LA Chargers 00311.2
31 Atlanta 20120.2
32 Carolina 20213.8

Other NFL Resources

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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