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NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Baltimore 7295.0
2 Atlanta 9085.2
3 Kansas City 90116.4
4 LA Chargers 11166.5
5 New Orleans 70107.2
6 Pittsburgh 10167.3
7 Miami 10087.3
8 Houston 8187.4
9 Cincinnati 13157.4
10 Denver 70107.9
11 Las Vegas 8098.0
12 Minnesota 71108.0
13 Seattle 70118.2
14 Tennessee 9268.2
15 Chicago 51118.7
16 Arizona 8099.0
17 Washington 8189.0
18 Green Bay 8099.1
19 Tampa Bay 41139.1
20 Buffalo 8199.4
21 Cleveland 8099.5
22 New England 7199.6
23 Philadelphia 100109.6
24 NY Jets 8099.8
25 Carolina 9089.9
26 NY Giants 140510.0
27 LA Rams 611010.1
28 Indianapolis 601110.6
29 Detroit 120510.8
30 Jacksonville 100911.5
31 Dallas 101811.7
32 San Francisco 130712.1

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Baltimore 1163.5
2 Atlanta 5044.7
3 Kansas City 4063.8
4 LA Chargers 41310.2
5 New Orleans 4056.8
6 Pittsburgh 4136.0
7 Miami 5036.6
8 Houston 3058.5
9 Cincinnati 5127.4
10 Denver 3054.9
11 Las Vegas 5037.8
12 Minnesota 4067.5
13 Seattle 4058.9
14 Tennessee 3146.2
15 Chicago 3156.3
16 Arizona 4058.6
17 Washington 4148.9
18 Green Bay 40511.6
19 Tampa Bay 2175.6
20 Buffalo 4069.9
21 Cleveland 40411.1
22 New England 30511.9
23 Philadelphia 80412.2
24 NY Jets 30511.9
25 Carolina 50413.8
26 NY Giants 60310.0
27 LA Rams 40514.2
28 Indianapolis 3057.6
29 Detroit 70210.5
30 Jacksonville 5049.4
31 Dallas 60310.8
32 San Francisco 90210.9

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Baltimore 6136.3
2 Atlanta 4045.7
3 Kansas City 5059.0
4 LA Chargers 7033.5
5 New Orleans 3057.6
6 Pittsburgh 6038.4
7 Miami 5057.9
8 Houston 5136.4
9 Cincinnati 8037.4
10 Denver 40510.6
11 Las Vegas 3068.1
12 Minnesota 3148.6
13 Seattle 3067.5
14 Tennessee 61210.1
15 Chicago 20611.4
16 Arizona 4049.5
17 Washington 4049.1
18 Green Bay 4046.2
19 Tampa Bay 20613.6
20 Buffalo 4138.8
21 Cleveland 4058.0
22 New England 4147.5
23 Philadelphia 2065.8
24 NY Jets 5047.9
25 Carolina 4045.6
26 NY Giants 80210.0
27 LA Rams 2155.4
28 Indianapolis 30613.4
29 Detroit 50311.1
30 Jacksonville 50513.3
31 Dallas 41512.5
32 San Francisco 40513.4

Other NFL Resources

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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