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NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Minnesota 7376.2
2 Carolina 41127.0
3 Seattle 8277.5
4 LA Rams 11077.8
5 Kansas City 14077.9
6 Indianapolis 9088.5
7 LA Chargers 60118.5
8 Arizona 8188.6
9 Detroit 14068.6
10 New England 50128.9
11 Tampa Bay 13069.1
12 Atlanta 50129.1
13 Tennessee 7199.1
14 Philadelphia 7299.4
15 Chicago 8279.4
16 Green Bay 10189.6
17 Las Vegas 10169.8
18 Pittsburgh 100810.4
19 Denver 611010.6
20 Cincinnati 81810.6
21 Washington 611010.6
22 Buffalo 801110.8
23 NY Jets 611010.8
24 New Orleans 62910.9
25 San Francisco 901110.9
26 Houston 101811.2
27 Cleveland 92711.6
28 NY Giants 81812.0
29 Jacksonville 90812.6
30 Baltimore 120713.0
31 Miami 100813.4
32 Dallas 100815.5

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Minnesota 2069.0
2 Carolina 3145.4
3 Seattle 3147.5
4 LA Rams 5035.8
5 Kansas City 7048.0
6 Indianapolis 4056.4
7 LA Chargers 3066.4
8 Arizona 5038.8
9 Detroit 6048.4
10 New England 1088.8
11 Tampa Bay 50411.6
12 Atlanta 3057.6
13 Tennessee 5137.2
14 Philadelphia 3147.8
15 Chicago 41310.6
16 Green Bay 41310.3
17 Las Vegas 61210.2
18 Pittsburgh 50411.3
19 Denver 4058.3
20 Cincinnati 5135.8
21 Washington 01714.6
22 Buffalo 50612.1
23 NY Jets 4059.9
24 New Orleans 30511.5
25 San Francisco 30710.1
26 Houston 51411.5
27 Cleveland 71112.2
28 NY Giants 51213.5
29 Jacksonville 40516.4
30 Baltimore 60514.3
31 Miami 60312.1
32 Dallas 60315.4

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Minnesota 5313.7
2 Carolina 1088.4
3 Seattle 5137.6
4 LA Rams 6049.5
5 Kansas City 7037.7
6 Indianapolis 50310.8
7 LA Chargers 30510.9
8 Arizona 3158.4
9 Detroit 8028.9
10 New England 4049.1
11 Tampa Bay 8026.8
12 Atlanta 20710.5
13 Tennessee 20611.3
14 Philadelphia 41510.7
15 Chicago 4148.3
16 Green Bay 6059.1
17 Las Vegas 4049.4
18 Pittsburgh 5049.4
19 Denver 21513.2
20 Cincinnati 30516.1
21 Washington 6037.2
22 Buffalo 3059.1
23 NY Jets 21511.9
24 New Orleans 32410.3
25 San Francisco 60411.7
26 Houston 50410.9
27 Cleveland 21611.1
28 NY Giants 30610.7
29 Jacksonville 5038.4
30 Baltimore 60211.2
31 Miami 40514.8
32 Dallas 40515.6

Other NFL Resources

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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