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NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Indianapolis 8054.2
2 Kansas City 4175.5
3 Houston 5266.6
4 LA Chargers 8136.9
5 Minnesota 7147.9
6 Baltimore 6167.9
7 LA Rams 5078.0
8 Cincinnati 6068.1
9 Green Bay 6068.2
10 New England 5178.3
11 Pittsburgh 9038.5
12 Atlanta 5078.7
13 Chicago 6248.8
14 Jacksonville 6159.2
15 NY Giants 2199.3
16 Las Vegas 5079.3
17 Miami 5079.6
18 San Francisco 4089.8
19 NY Jets 30910.0
20 Seattle 52510.2
21 Tampa Bay 70510.7
22 Tennessee 201010.8
23 Denver 91310.8
24 Cleveland 40810.8
25 Philadelphia 80411.0
26 Washington 81411.2
27 Detroit 90312.4
28 Buffalo 80412.5
29 Dallas 41712.9
30 Arizona 80413.0
31 Carolina 50713.6
32 New Orleans 50714.2

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Indianapolis 4024.9
2 Kansas City 2046.1
3 Houston 2133.2
4 LA Chargers 4115.3
5 Minnesota 4028.4
6 Baltimore 21311.5
7 LA Rams 2048.3
8 Cincinnati 10511.3
9 Green Bay 4039.8
10 New England 2135.0
11 Pittsburgh 4018.9
12 Atlanta 2056.6
13 Chicago 51110.8
14 Jacksonville 3123.3
15 NY Giants 01511.1
16 Las Vegas 2039.6
17 Miami 20411.6
18 San Francisco 3037.7
19 NY Jets 2047.2
20 Seattle 21410.7
21 Tampa Bay 30311.6
22 Tennessee 0056.4
23 Denver 4029.2
24 Cleveland 20411.4
25 Philadelphia 2034.1
26 Washington 50211.8
27 Detroit 40214.6
28 Buffalo 40212.7
29 Dallas 10518.1
30 Arizona 40219.0
31 Carolina 4039.2
32 New Orleans 30416.0

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Indianapolis 4033.5
2 Kansas City 2134.9
3 Houston 3139.6
4 LA Chargers 4028.5
5 Minnesota 3127.3
6 Baltimore 4034.8
7 LA Rams 3037.6
8 Cincinnati 5014.9
9 Green Bay 2035.9
10 New England 30411.2
11 Pittsburgh 5028.3
12 Atlanta 30211.7
13 Chicago 1136.1
14 Jacksonville 30315.1
15 NY Giants 2047.4
16 Las Vegas 3049.1
17 Miami 3037.6
18 San Francisco 10512.0
19 NY Jets 10512.9
20 Seattle 3119.5
21 Tampa Bay 4029.8
22 Tennessee 20513.9
23 Denver 51112.2
24 Cleveland 20410.3
25 Philadelphia 60115.9
26 Washington 31210.4
27 Detroit 50110.2
28 Buffalo 40212.3
29 Dallas 3127.7
30 Arizona 4027.1
31 Carolina 10419.7
32 New Orleans 20311.7

Other NFL Resources

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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