NFL Predictability Index

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Chicago	0	1	0.5
2	Minnesota	1	0	0.5
3	Buffalo	0	1	0.5
4	Baltimore	1	0	0.5
5	NY Jets	1	0	0.5
6	Pittsburgh	0	1	0.5
7	Atlanta	0	1	0.5
8	Tampa Bay	1	0	0.5
9	Denver	0	1	1.5
10	Tennessee	1	0	1.5
11	New Orleans	0	1	1.5
12	Arizona	1	0	1.5
13	LA Rams	1	0	2.5
14	Houston	0	1	2.5
15	Seattle	0	1	2.5
16	San Francisco	1	0	2.5
17	Philadelphia	0	1	2.5
18	Dallas	1	0	2.5
19	Cleveland	1	0	3.5
20	Cincinnati	0	1	3.5
21	Washington	1	1	8.0
22	Green Bay	2	0	9.5
23	NY Giants	0	1	9.5
24	New England	0	1	9.5
25	Las Vegas	1	0	9.5
26	LA Chargers	1	0	9.5
27	Kansas City	0	1	9.5
28	Detroit	0	1	12.5
29	Jacksonville	1	0	13.5
30	Carolina	0	1	13.5
31	Indianapolis	1	0	23.5
32	Miami	0	1	23.5

Home Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Chicago	0	1	0.5
2	Minnesota	0	0	0.0
3	Buffalo	0	1	0.5
4	Baltimore	0	0	0.0
5	NY Jets	1	0	0.5
6	Pittsburgh	0	0	0.0
7	Atlanta	0	1	0.5
8	Tampa Bay	0	0	0.0
9	Denver	0	1	1.5
10	Tennessee	0	0	0.0
11	New Orleans	0	1	1.5
12	Arizona	0	0	0.0
13	LA Rams	1	0	2.5
14	Houston	0	0	0.0
15	Seattle	0	1	2.5
16	San Francisco	0	0	0.0
17	Philadelphia	0	1	2.5
18	Dallas	0	0	0.0
19	Cleveland	1	0	3.5
20	Cincinnati	0	0	0.0
21	Washington	1	0	9.5
22	Green Bay	2	0	9.5
23	NY Giants	0	0	0.0
24	New England	0	1	9.5
25	Las Vegas	0	0	0.0
26	LA Chargers	1	0	9.5
27	Kansas City	0	0	0.0
28	Detroit	0	0	0.0
29	Jacksonville	1	0	13.5
30	Carolina	0	0	0.0
31	Indianapolis	1	0	23.5
32	Miami	0	0	0.0

Away Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Chicago	0	0	0.0
2	Minnesota	1	0	0.5
3	Buffalo	0	0	0.0
4	Baltimore	1	0	0.5
5	NY Jets	0	0	0.0
6	Pittsburgh	0	1	0.5
7	Atlanta	0	0	0.0
8	Tampa Bay	1	0	0.5
9	Denver	0	0	0.0
10	Tennessee	1	0	1.5
11	New Orleans	0	0	0.0
12	Arizona	1	0	1.5
13	LA Rams	0	0	0.0
14	Houston	0	1	2.5
15	Seattle	0	0	0.0
16	San Francisco	1	0	2.5
17	Philadelphia	0	0	0.0
18	Dallas	1	0	2.5
19	Cleveland	0	0	0.0
20	Cincinnati	0	1	3.5
21	Washington	0	1	6.5
22	Green Bay	0	0	0.0
23	NY Giants	0	1	9.5
24	New England	0	0	0.0
25	Las Vegas	1	0	9.5
26	LA Chargers	0	0	0.0
27	Kansas City	0	1	9.5
28	Detroit	0	1	12.5
29	Jacksonville	0	0	0.0
30	Carolina	0	1	13.5
31	Indianapolis	0	0	0.0
32	Miami	0	1	23.5

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