NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Green Bay 70116.8
2 Chicago 12076.9
3 Denver 10096.9
4 Philadelphia 9097.7
5 Arizona 70107.7
6 Tampa Bay 60118.0
7 Buffalo 11088.4
8 LA Rams 11098.5
9 New Orleans 9088.6
10 San Francisco 11088.7
11 NY Giants 70108.7
12 New England 15058.9
13 NY Jets 8099.3
14 Houston 10099.4
15 Kansas City 50129.7
16 Pittsburgh 9099.8
17 Cleveland 80910.0
18 Tennessee 701010.2
19 Indianapolis 100710.3
20 LA Chargers 801010.3
21 Detroit 80910.5
22 Carolina 90910.5
23 Dallas 80910.6
24 Atlanta 90810.6
25 Las Vegas 90811.1
26 Seattle 150411.6
27 Jacksonville 120611.8
28 Cincinnati 501211.8
29 Baltimore 701011.9
30 Minnesota 100712.3
31 Washington 601112.6
32 Miami 601112.7

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Green Bay 4049.0
2 Chicago 8026.3
3 Denver 7049.3
4 Philadelphia 4058.8
5 Arizona 2067.6
6 Tampa Bay 2067.4
7 Buffalo 6035.4
8 LA Rams 6027.5
9 New Orleans 4048.8
10 San Francisco 4045.6
11 NY Giants 3059.1
12 New England 7049.8
13 NY Jets 40510.2
14 Houston 5047.9
15 Kansas City 40510.3
16 Pittsburgh 60411.4
17 Cleveland 6038.1
18 Tennessee 40510.5
19 Indianapolis 50410.7
20 LA Chargers 60310.7
21 Detroit 40411.4
22 Carolina 60312.0
23 Dallas 40410.0
24 Atlanta 30511.4
25 Las Vegas 6038.7
26 Seattle 70312.0
27 Jacksonville 70315.5
28 Cincinnati 2077.3
29 Baltimore 20712.5
30 Minnesota 50315.4
31 Washington 3059.9
32 Miami 4059.8

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Green Bay 3075.0
2 Chicago 4057.5
3 Denver 3053.6
4 Philadelphia 5046.5
5 Arizona 5047.8
6 Tampa Bay 4058.5
7 Buffalo 50511.1
8 LA Rams 5079.1
9 New Orleans 5048.5
10 San Francisco 70410.9
11 NY Giants 4058.3
12 New England 8017.7
13 NY Jets 4048.3
14 Houston 50510.7
15 Kansas City 1079.1
16 Pittsburgh 3057.8
17 Cleveland 20612.3
18 Tennessee 3059.9
19 Indianapolis 5039.8
20 LA Chargers 2079.9
21 Detroit 4059.7
22 Carolina 3069.1
23 Dallas 40511.2
24 Atlanta 6039.9
25 Las Vegas 30513.9
26 Seattle 80111.1
27 Jacksonville 5037.1
28 Cincinnati 30516.9
29 Baltimore 50311.1
30 Minnesota 5049.5
31 Washington 30615.0
32 Miami 20615.9

Other NFL Resources

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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