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NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Green Bay 7065.3
2 NY Jets 8056.4
3 Arizona 7066.7
4 Denver 5086.7
5 Chicago 8056.8
6 NY Giants 5087.2
7 Philadelphia 6077.2
8 San Francisco 7068.0
9 New England 10038.4
10 Tampa Bay 5098.5
11 Pittsburgh 6078.7
12 New Orleans 5089.0
13 Houston 7069.2
14 Cleveland 5089.4
15 Tennessee 6079.5
16 Buffalo 8059.5
17 Dallas 7069.5
18 Cincinnati 30109.8
19 Kansas City 5089.8
20 LA Rams 90410.0
21 Las Vegas 70610.0
22 LA Chargers 60710.6
23 Baltimore 50810.9
24 Detroit 70610.9
25 Indianapolis 70611.3
26 Atlanta 70711.7
27 Jacksonville 90411.7
28 Seattle 100311.7
29 Miami 50812.0
30 Carolina 70612.2
31 Minnesota 60713.0
32 Washington 40913.8

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Green Bay 4037.4
2 NY Jets 4048.9
3 Arizona 2057.9
4 Denver 30310.2
5 Chicago 4014.5
6 NY Giants 2038.1
7 Philadelphia 3037.5
8 San Francisco 2036.3
9 New England 4039.8
10 Tampa Bay 1067.8
11 Pittsburgh 40310.5
12 New Orleans 2047.8
13 Houston 4027.5
14 Cleveland 4037.6
15 Tennessee 3049.8
16 Buffalo 5024.1
17 Dallas 4028.0
18 Cincinnati 1052.9
19 Kansas City 40311.8
20 LA Rams 4028.0
21 Las Vegas 5026.9
22 LA Chargers 60211.7
23 Baltimore 20613.3
24 Detroit 40311.4
25 Indianapolis 40311.4
26 Atlanta 20413.3
27 Jacksonville 50216.1
28 Seattle 40212.3
29 Miami 3047.9
30 Carolina 40214.4
31 Minnesota 30316.5
32 Washington 30311.5

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Green Bay 3033.0
2 NY Jets 4012.5
3 Arizona 5015.3
4 Denver 2053.8
5 Chicago 4048.3
6 NY Giants 3056.6
7 Philadelphia 3046.9
8 San Francisco 5039.1
9 New England 6006.8
10 Tampa Bay 4039.2
11 Pittsburgh 2046.5
12 New Orleans 30410.1
13 Houston 30410.6
14 Cleveland 10511.5
15 Tennessee 3039.2
16 Buffalo 30315.8
17 Dallas 30410.8
18 Cincinnati 20515.6
19 Kansas City 1057.5
20 LA Rams 50211.6
21 Las Vegas 20413.5
22 LA Chargers 0058.9
23 Baltimore 3027.1
24 Detroit 30310.4
25 Indianapolis 30311.2
26 Atlanta 50310.5
27 Jacksonville 4026.7
28 Seattle 60111.2
29 Miami 20416.8
30 Carolina 30410.4
31 Minnesota 30410.1
32 Washington 10615.9

Other NFL Resources

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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