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NFL Predictability Index

NFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Arizona 5023.1
2 Green Bay 3045.2
3 NY Jets 5036.1
4 Pittsburgh 3046.8
5 Philadelphia 4047.5
6 San Francisco 3057.6
7 New Orleans 2067.8
8 LA Rams 5027.9
9 Tampa Bay 5038.0
10 Denver 3058.3
11 Buffalo 4038.6
12 Chicago 3048.8
13 NY Giants 4049.6
14 Dallas 4049.9
15 Seattle 5029.9
16 Cincinnati 20610.2
17 Cleveland 30510.3
18 LA Chargers 30510.4
19 Jacksonville 50210.8
20 New England 60211.0
21 Las Vegas 40311.1
22 Miami 20611.3
23 Kansas City 50311.5
24 Tennessee 20611.6
25 Houston 30411.6
26 Baltimore 30412.2
27 Washington 30512.6
28 Detroit 50212.7
29 Minnesota 40312.9
30 Indianapolis 60213.6
31 Carolina 40413.8
32 Atlanta 30415.5

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Arizona 2024.0
2 Green Bay 2017.8
3 NY Jets 2037.9
4 Pittsburgh 2028.0
5 Philadelphia 2026.0
6 San Francisco 1026.5
7 New Orleans 2036.2
8 LA Rams 2014.2
9 Tampa Bay 1029.5
10 Denver 20211.8
11 Buffalo 2023.0
12 Chicago 2017.2
13 NY Giants 20112.8
14 Dallas 2019.2
15 Seattle 2029.8
16 Cincinnati 1033.4
17 Cleveland 3018.8
18 LA Chargers 30214.0
19 Jacksonville 30212.7
20 New England 20213.5
21 Las Vegas 3003.5
22 Miami 1023.8
23 Kansas City 40113.7
24 Tennessee 00314.5
25 Houston 20110.8
26 Baltimore 20313.9
27 Washington 2017.8
28 Detroit 30016.8
29 Minnesota 20120.2
30 Indianapolis 40114.1
31 Carolina 30115.6
32 Atlanta 20213.3

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Arizona 3001.8
2 Green Bay 1033.3
3 NY Jets 3003.2
4 Pittsburgh 1025.2
5 Philadelphia 2029.0
6 San Francisco 2038.3
7 New Orleans 00310.5
8 LA Rams 30110.8
9 Tampa Bay 4017.1
10 Denver 1034.8
11 Buffalo 20116.2
12 Chicago 10310.0
13 NY Giants 2037.6
14 Dallas 20310.3
15 Seattle 30010.2
16 Cincinnati 10317.0
17 Cleveland 00411.8
18 LA Chargers 0034.5
19 Jacksonville 2006.0
20 New England 4008.5
21 Las Vegas 10316.8
22 Miami 10415.8
23 Kansas City 1027.8
24 Tennessee 2039.9
25 Houston 10312.3
26 Baltimore 1018.0
27 Washington 10415.4
28 Detroit 2029.6
29 Minnesota 2027.5
30 Indianapolis 20112.8
31 Carolina 10312.0
32 Atlanta 10218.5

Other NFL Resources

The interactive NFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The NFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The NFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The NFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The NFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The NFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The NFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The NFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The NFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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