EPL - Poisson Distribution Analysis

EPL

Introduction

This tool uses the Poisson distribution to calculate various outcome probabilities and their respective fair odds for a selected pair of teams.

This model is sensitive to which side is specified as being the home team. It applies the approach outlined by this article: Poisson Distribution: How to calculate Poisson Distribution for soccer betting.

Variables

Select two teams and choose the timeframe for which the Poisson distribution is to be calculated.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.

Home Team:  
Away Team:  
Start date:  
End date:  
 

Poisson Analysis

League stats:
Average Home Goals Average Away Goals
1.4515 1.2455

Team stats:
  Attacking
Strength
Defensive
Strength
Expected
Goals
Leeds 0.9951 1.2490 0.9951
Arsenal 0.9446 0.6889 1.4694

The following are match outcome probabilities predicted by the Poisson distribution.

Head to HeadProababilityFair Odds
Leeds 25.59% 3.91
Draw 26.30% 3.80
Arsenal 48.11% 2.08
 
Both Teams
to Score
ProababilityFair Odds
Yes 48.53% 2.06
No 51.47% 1.94
 
Over/UnderProababilityFair Odds
Over 0.5 91.50% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.50% 11.76
Over 1.5 70.53% 1.42
Under 1.5 29.47% 3.39
Over 2.5 44.71% 2.24
Under 2.5 55.29% 1.81
Over 3.5 23.49% 4.26
Under 3.5 76.51% 1.31
 
Clean SheetProababilityFair Odds
Leeds: Yes 23.01% 4.35
Leeds: No 76.99% 1.30
Arsenal: Yes 36.97% 2.71
Arsenal: No 63.03% 1.59

Correct score fair odds and their associated probabilities:

  Arsenal (away team)
0 1 2 3
Leeds
(home
team)
0 11.76
8.50%
8.00
12.50%
10.89
9.18%
22.24
4.50%
1 11.82
8.46%
8.04
12.44%
10.94
9.14%
22.35
4.48%
2 23.75
4.21%
16.16
6.19%
22.00
4.55%
44.91
2.23%
3 71.59
1.40%
48.72
2.05%
66.31
1.51%
135
0.74%
4 288
0.35%
196
0.51%
267
0.38%
544
0.18%
5 1,446
0.07%
984
0.10%
1,339
0.07%
2,734
0.04%

Other Resources

Watch EPL games live and on demand with Kayo Sports.

The interactive EPL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The EPL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The EPL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The EPL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The EPL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

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