This tool uses the Poisson distribution to calculate various outcome probabilities and their respective fair odds for a selected pair of teams.
This model is sensitive to which side is specified as being the home team. It applies the approach outlined by this article: Poisson Distribution: How to calculate Poisson Distribution for soccer betting.
Select two teams and choose the timeframe for which the Poisson distribution is to be calculated.
Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.
| Average Home Goals | Average Away Goals |
|---|---|
| 1.6839 | 1.5311 |
| Attacking Strength |
Defensive Strength |
Expected Goals |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.4186 | 0.9071 | 1.4186 |
| Manchester City | 1.3063 | 0.5938 | 1.8143 |
The following are match outcome probabilities predicted by the Poisson distribution.
| Head to Head | Proabability | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 30.22% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 22.83% | 4.38 |
| Manchester City | 46.95% | 2.13 |
| Both Teams to Score | Proabability | Fair Odds |
| Yes | 63.44% | 1.58 |
| No | 36.56% | 2.74 |
| Over/Under | Proabability | Fair Odds |
| Over 0.5 | 96.06% | 1.04 |
| Under 0.5 | 3.94% | 25.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 83.30% | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 16.70% | 5.99 |
| Over 2.5 | 62.69% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37.31% | 2.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 40.48% | 2.47 |
| Under 3.5 | 59.52% | 1.68 |
| Clean Sheet | Proabability | Fair Odds |
| Chelsea: Yes | 16.30% | 6.14 |
| Chelsea: No | 83.70% | 1.19 |
| Manchester City: Yes | 24.20% | 4.13 |
| Manchester City: No | 75.80% | 1.32 |
Correct score fair odds and their associated probabilities:
| Manchester City (away team) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Chelsea (home team) |
0 | 25.35 3.94% |
13.97 7.16% |
15.40 6.49% |
25.47 3.93% |
||
| 1 | 17.87 5.60% |
9.85 10.15% |
10.86 9.21% |
17.96 5.57% |
|||
| 2 | 25.19 3.97% |
13.89 7.20% |
15.31 6.53% |
25.31 3.95% |
|||
| 3 | 53.28 1.88% |
29.37 3.41% |
32.37 3.09% |
53.53 1.87% |
|||
| 4 | 150 0.67% |
82.81 1.21% |
91.28 1.10% |
151 0.66% |
|||
| 5 | 529 0.19% |
292 0.34% |
322 0.31% |
532 0.19% |
|||
A preview with betting tips for this round has been published on AusSportsBetting.com.
The interactive EPL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.
The EPL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.
The EPL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.
The EPL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.
The EPL score statistics provides goals for, goals against, goal difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.
The EPL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.
The EPL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.
The EPL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.
EPL clean sheets displays each team's clean sheets tally for the date range of your choosing.
