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AFL Predictability Index

AFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Melbourne 1101417.4
2 Richmond 1001318.7
3 Collingwood 1301319.1
4 North Melbourne 1301022.0
5 Brisbane 1301322.1
6 Port Adelaide 1401124.2
7 St Kilda 1201224.4
8 GWS 1501124.4
9 Western Bulldogs 1101224.5
10 Carlton 1401225.0
11 Adelaide 150826.0
12 Essendon 1201126.5
13 Geelong 801526.6
14 Sydney 1201227.1
15 Gold Coast 1101228.9
16 Fremantle 1101231.8
17 Hawthorn 1201133.3
18 West Coast 901433.9

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Melbourne 60618.6
2 Richmond 40818.4
3 Collingwood 60914.4
4 North Melbourne 80320.4
5 Brisbane 80620.0
6 Port Adelaide 70620.9
7 St Kilda 50725.3
8 GWS 50723.5
9 Western Bulldogs 50629.5
10 Carlton 50725.9
11 Adelaide 90331.1
12 Essendon 70523.3
13 Geelong 50730.5
14 Sydney 50628.7
15 Gold Coast 90231.6
16 Fremantle 60628.0
17 Hawthorn 60540.9
18 West Coast 40729.4

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Melbourne 50816.3
2 Richmond 60519.0
3 Collingwood 70425.4
4 North Melbourne 50723.5
5 Brisbane 50724.6
6 Port Adelaide 70527.8
7 St Kilda 70523.5
8 GWS 100425.2
9 Western Bulldogs 60619.9
10 Carlton 90524.3
11 Adelaide 60520.5
12 Essendon 50630.0
13 Geelong 30822.4
14 Sydney 70625.8
15 Gold Coast 201026.4
16 Fremantle 50635.9
17 Hawthorn 60626.3
18 West Coast 50738.0

Other AFL Resources

The interactive AFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The AFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The AFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The AFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The AFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The AFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The AFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The AFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The AFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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