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AFL Predictability Index

AFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Port Adelaide 2006.5
2 West Coast 0028.5
3 North Melbourne 10110.5
4 Essendon 10112.0
5 Richmond 10215.2
6 St Kilda 20015.5
7 Carlton 10116.5
8 Adelaide 10117.5
9 GWS 20118.2
10 Fremantle 20020.5
11 Geelong 10120.5
12 Gold Coast 10221.2
13 Sydney 30021.2
14 Hawthorn 00228.0
15 Melbourne 20129.2
16 Brisbane 00329.8
17 Collingwood 10332.0
18 Western Bulldogs 10137.0

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Port Adelaide 1000.5
2 West Coast 00116.5
3 North Melbourne 0019.5
4 Essendon 10022.5
5 Richmond 00112.5
6 St Kilda 10024.5
7 Carlton 0018.5
8 Adelaide 00134.5
9 GWS 10119.0
10 Fremantle 10031.5
11 Geelong 0016.5
12 Gold Coast 10112.5
13 Sydney 20010.0
14 Hawthorn 00133.5
15 Melbourne 10035.5
16 Brisbane 00229.0
17 Collingwood 00143.5
18 Western Bulldogs 10038.5

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Port Adelaide 10012.5
2 West Coast 0010.5
3 North Melbourne 10011.5
4 Essendon 0011.5
5 Richmond 10116.5
6 St Kilda 1006.5
7 Carlton 10024.5
8 Adelaide 1000.5
9 GWS 10016.5
10 Fremantle 1009.5
11 Geelong 10034.5
12 Gold Coast 00138.5
13 Sydney 10043.5
14 Hawthorn 00122.5
15 Melbourne 10126.0
16 Brisbane 00131.5
17 Collingwood 10228.2
18 Western Bulldogs 00135.5

Other AFL Resources

A preview with betting tips for this round has been published on AusSportsBetting.com.

The interactive AFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The AFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The AFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The AFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The AFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The AFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The AFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The AFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The AFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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