AFL Predictability Index

AFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Melbourne 60413.9
2 St Kilda 70319.7
3 Brisbane 60419.9
4 Adelaide 40620.3
5 Essendon 10922.0
6 Western Bulldogs 50522.7
7 Gold Coast 50523.0
8 Collingwood 60423.3
9 Carlton 60423.8
10 Port Adelaide 60426.0
11 Geelong 60428.0
12 Sydney 50529.9
13 North Melbourne 20829.9
14 Richmond 70330.7
15 Hawthorn 60432.6
16 GWS 30732.7
17 Fremantle 70335.0
18 West Coast 20836.2

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Melbourne 40119.1
2 St Kilda 30216.1
3 Brisbane 20223.3
4 Adelaide 20420.8
5 Essendon 10420.1
6 Western Bulldogs 30214.5
7 Gold Coast 30131.0
8 Collingwood 20322.1
9 Carlton 40219.2
10 Port Adelaide 20241.5
11 Geelong 30130.3
12 Sydney 20333.5
13 North Melbourne 10425.5
14 Richmond 50024.5
15 Hawthorn 30328.3
16 GWS 20426.3
17 Fremantle 30233.1
18 West Coast 00546.7

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Melbourne 2038.7
2 St Kilda 40123.3
3 Brisbane 40217.7
4 Adelaide 20219.5
5 Essendon 00523.9
6 Western Bulldogs 20330.9
7 Gold Coast 20417.7
8 Collingwood 40124.5
9 Carlton 20230.8
10 Port Adelaide 40215.7
11 Geelong 30326.5
12 Sydney 30226.3
13 North Melbourne 10434.3
14 Richmond 20336.9
15 Hawthorn 30139.0
16 GWS 10342.3
17 Fremantle 40136.9
18 West Coast 20325.7

Other Resources

Watch AFL games live and on demand with Kayo Sports.

The interactive AFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The AFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The AFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The AFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The AFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The AFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The AFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

The AFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

About:

Partners:

Sports and Leagues:

AFL A-League Big Bash League
English Premier League Indian Premier League NBA
NBL NFL NRL
Super Rugby

18+
Think! About your choices.
Call Gambler's Help or Gambling Help 1800 858 858 www.gambleaware.nsw.gov.au or www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Think of the people who need your support. Gamble Responsibly.

© 2012- Australia Sports Tipping