AFL Predictability Index

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Fremantle	16	9	20.1
2	Collingwood	12	12	20.6
3	St Kilda	11	12	20.8
4	Richmond	10	13	21.0
5	Geelong	14	11	21.6
6	Gold Coast	5	18	22.5
7	Adelaide	13	12	22.5
8	North Melbourne	12	11	22.7
9	Western Bulldogs	12	13	22.9
10	West Coast	13	10	23.6
11	Port Adelaide	11	12	24.7
12	Melbourne	15	9	25.0
13	Essendon	10	13	27.6
14	Carlton	14	11	28.3
15	Hawthorn	11	13	30.1
16	GWS	10	13	30.8
17	Sydney	13	11	32.3
18	Brisbane	13	12	37.0

Home Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Fremantle	10	3	16.6
2	Collingwood	5	7	18.1
3	St Kilda	3	8	23.1
4	Richmond	4	7	20.0
5	Geelong	9	4	19.1
6	Gold Coast	2	9	16.9
7	Adelaide	6	7	23.2
8	North Melbourne	7	5	25.3
9	Western Bulldogs	6	6	25.0
10	West Coast	7	4	26.8
11	Port Adelaide	7	5	26.8
12	Melbourne	7	5	26.8
13	Essendon	6	6	29.3
14	Carlton	7	4	31.9
15	Hawthorn	4	8	25.1
16	GWS	6	6	33.5
17	Sydney	9	4	33.8
18	Brisbane	8	4	33.4

Away Fixtures

R		C	NC	PS
1	Fremantle	6	6	23.8
2	Collingwood	7	5	23.2
3	St Kilda	8	4	18.7
4	Richmond	6	6	22.0
5	Geelong	5	7	24.3
6	Gold Coast	3	9	27.6
7	Adelaide	7	5	21.7
8	North Melbourne	5	6	20.0
9	Western Bulldogs	6	7	21.0
10	West Coast	6	6	20.8
11	Port Adelaide	4	7	22.5
12	Melbourne	8	4	23.1
13	Essendon	4	7	25.7
14	Carlton	7	7	25.4
15	Hawthorn	7	5	35.2
16	GWS	4	7	27.9
17	Sydney	4	7	30.6
18	Brisbane	5	8	40.3

Other AFL Resources

The interactive AFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The AFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The AFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The AFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The AFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The AFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.