AFL Predictability Index

AFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Carlton 20012.5
2 West Coast 10113.0
3 Richmond 10114.5
4 Adelaide 00215.0
5 GWS 10115.5
6 North Melbourne 20019.5
7 Geelong 00224.5
8 Gold Coast 00229.5
9 Melbourne 10131.0
10 Fremantle 00232.5
11 Brisbane 10135.5
12 Essendon 20035.5
13 Sydney 20040.0
14 Hawthorn 00246.0
15 St Kilda 20046.0
16 Collingwood 20046.5
17 Western Bulldogs 00254.5
18 Port Adelaide 10158.5

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Carlton 10017.5
2 West Coast 10022.5
3 Richmond 0017.5
4 Adelaide 00121.5
5 GWS 1008.5
6 North Melbourne 1003.5
7 Geelong 00131.5
8 Gold Coast 00141.5
9 Melbourne 10046.5
10 Fremantle 00135.5
11 Brisbane 10015.5
12 Essendon 10017.5
13 Sydney 10038.5
14 Hawthorn 00153.5
15 St Kilda 10029.5
16 Collingwood 10061.5
17 Western Bulldogs 00162.5
18 Port Adelaide 10055.5

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 Carlton 1007.5
2 West Coast 0013.5
3 Richmond 10021.5
4 Adelaide 0018.5
5 GWS 00122.5
6 North Melbourne 10035.5
7 Geelong 00117.5
8 Gold Coast 00117.5
9 Melbourne 00115.5
10 Fremantle 00129.5
11 Brisbane 00155.5
12 Essendon 10053.5
13 Sydney 10041.5
14 Hawthorn 00138.5
15 St Kilda 10062.5
16 Collingwood 10031.5
17 Western Bulldogs 00146.5
18 Port Adelaide 00161.5

Other Resources

A preview with betting tips for this round has been published on AusSportsBetting.com.

The interactive AFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The AFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The AFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The AFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The AFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The AFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The AFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

The AFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

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