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AFL Predictability Index

AFL

Introduction

The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

bet365 lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker\'s line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

All Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 St Kilda 70716.6
2 Essendon 60719.2
3 Carlton 90520.6
4 Gold Coast 70621.0
5 North Melbourne 40921.0
6 GWS 60722.5
7 Geelong 60823.9
8 Port Adelaide 50824.0
9 Adelaide 60824.4
10 Collingwood 60825.7
11 Sydney 110227.7
12 Hawthorn 90528.3
13 Melbourne 70631.1
14 Richmond 60831.9
15 West Coast 50833.2
16 Brisbane 60734.3
17 Fremantle 80535.3
18 Western Bulldogs 70736.4

Home Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 St Kilda 20320.9
2 Essendon 40216.8
3 Carlton 40319.5
4 Gold Coast 60220.5
5 North Melbourne 10523.2
6 GWS 30328.0
7 Geelong 20416.7
8 Port Adelaide 20524.6
9 Adelaide 20628.5
10 Collingwood 30427.9
11 Sydney 60020.8
12 Hawthorn 40327.8
13 Melbourne 30240.5
14 Richmond 30529.6
15 West Coast 50338.1
16 Brisbane 30433.1
17 Fremantle 30323.0
18 Western Bulldogs 30532.8

Away Fixtures

RTeamCPNCPS
1 St Kilda 50414.3
2 Essendon 20521.2
3 Carlton 50221.6
4 Gold Coast 10421.7
5 North Melbourne 30419.2
6 GWS 30417.8
7 Geelong 40429.3
8 Port Adelaide 30323.2
9 Adelaide 40218.8
10 Collingwood 30423.5
11 Sydney 50233.5
12 Hawthorn 50228.8
13 Melbourne 40425.3
14 Richmond 30334.8
15 West Coast 00525.3
16 Brisbane 30335.8
17 Fremantle 50245.9
18 Western Bulldogs 40241.3

Other AFL Resources

A preview with betting tips for this round has been published on AusSportsBetting.com.

The interactive AFL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The AFL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The AFL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The AFL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The AFL line betting table ranks each team based on how frequently they have covered the line this season. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

The AFL score statistics provides points for, points against, points difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The AFL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The AFL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The AFL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

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