Featured Tip from Mike Wilson

Pick Details

Sport / league:: NRL
Event / fixture:: Roosters vs. Panthers
Event date: Sat, 13 Sep 2014 at 5:50 PM
Market:: Total Score
Tip:: Total Match Points Under 39.5 @ 1.90 (Sportsbet)
Tip Result:: Win

The Roosters scraped home to claim the minor premiership in the last possible minute at the end of the home and away season but effectively the competition starts again for them come Saturday evening.

They will be taking on the Panthers who have defied opinion from go to woe and claimed a top 4 spot and ultimately a second chance if they happen to go down in this encounter.

I expect the Roosters to get on top of them but I also foresee the Panthers putting in a fully committed effort that will keep them in touch throughout the match but in the end won’t quite be enough to defeat last year’s premiers.

And when you speak of the Panthers defying the critics it all starts with Jamie Soward who copped a lot of negative preseason opinions claiming he wouldn’t live up to expectations. Soward on the contrary has not played a bad game all year and literally lead the way from the halves helping his forwards gain plenty of field position which in turn has helped the Panthers defeat opponents by applying relentless pressure.

The Panthers also possess plenty of power on the edges with the likes of Jamal Idris and particularly Lewis Brown who likes to float around on the fringes of the ruck and beyond trying to sniff out a hole or any potentially penetrable weakness amongst his opposite numbers.

The Roosters became very fragile in those exact fringe areas in the latter stages of last week’s match against Rabbitohs and they will need to shore up those holes if they are to stay in front of the Panthers because if you add winger Josh Mansour to the likes of Idris and Brown, you end up facing a formidable structure.

But as I mentioned earlier, I’m backing the Roosters to do the job and success will come off the back of a representative laden forward pack. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Boyd Cordner and none other than Sonny Bill Williams know how to get up and run themselves into the ground for their side in the big matches whether it be finals, test matches or State of Origin. Add Mitch Aubusson to the fray as he replaces Jake Friend at dummy half, and although he may not be the most skilfully adept attacking hooker, if you dare run at him, he will snap you in half whether you’re 80kgs, 130kgs, man, woman or child!

In betting the Roosters are far too short for my liking in the head to head market and the $1.90 line is too big for me to put money into the handicap market in the hope they will cover it.

I would be tempted to review a Panthers line bet if the start was 12 or more but it has fallen just short with the best quote coming in at +11.5

Being played on Saturday evening, this game will be the 5th contest played on Allianz Stadium in two days once you factor in the Rabbitohs v Sea Eagles game on Friday night, plus 3 (yes 3) prior Holden Cup games.

The Allianz surface will be a bit worse for wear as a result which will skim a bit of speed off the players not to mention lateral structures and attacking raids will have the sting taken out of them.

Both these sides are defensively sound with the Roosters conceding and average of just 1.7 points per game less than the Panthers throughout the 26 regular rounds and on a less than perfect surface, points will be at a premium here.

Therefore I recommend getting on the total match points market to be under 39.5 (Sportsbet).
Enjoy the game!



-Mike Wilson



Mike’s Tip: Roosters

Mike’s Best Bet: Total Match Points Under 39.5 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

About Mike Wilson

Bio: Mike Wilson is an avid Rugby League fan and has been following the game since he was 6 years old. He devotes much of his time to studying and reviewing games. When he is not neck deep in match replays and stats, Mike enjoys earning some pocket money playing online poker, which he has done successfully for over 7 years. Mike lives on the Gold Coast and also enjoys Formula One and casual afternoon in front of the horses with a few quiet beers ;)

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