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| Event | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|
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Head-to-head: Odds: |
Pending |
| I was able to back Leeds in the lookahead odds at 2.10, but they are still backable at the current odds. The hosts are undefeated at home since March 3 and they thrashed Newcastle 4-1 at Elland Road in Gameweek 4. Leeds have no midweek commitments prior to this game, while Crystal Palace will be backing up following a Europa League clash on Thursday night (local). Palace continue to struggle to find their feet under new manager Pierre Sage. They have conceded 2+ goals in all four league games and they lost their last visit to Elland Road by a 4-1 score line. That was their third defeat in four EPL visits to this venue. Leeds have gone 6-1-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months, while Crystal Palace have gone 4-2-9 as the away underdog. Palace will be without first-choice goalkeeper Dean Henderson and centre-back Chadi Riad due injury, while fellow centre-back Axel Disasi is suspended. Star midfielder Ismaïla Sarr remains out following his failed transfer away and their best striker Jean-Philippe Mateta remains out with injury. | ||
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Total Score: Odds: |
Loss |
| Liverpool’s opening two fixtures each saw four total goals, while Ipswich’s two games combined for ten total goals. Spanning this season and the last, Liverpool’s last six away games went over 2.5 goals. Their last meeting against Ipswich saw five total goals. | ||
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Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Ismaila Sarr was absent from Crystal Palace’s squad against Everton last week. There are reports he has a groin injury, but there are also rumours of a potential move to Galatasaray. He was sorely missed by the Eagles last week, which is nothing new. Their form tanked last season when Sarr was away on AFCON duty. I’m very bullish on Man City’s chances this week if Sarr is absent. City boast a 9-3-1 record at Selhurst Park since Place were promoted. Man City won each of their last three fixtures against Crystal Palace by 3-goal margins. Palace’s chances aren’t helped by the injury to defender Chadi Riad, who was carried off on a stretcher last week. | ||
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Asian Handicap: Odds: |
Win |
| Over the last three seasons, Arsenal have beaten the newly promoted teams at home by 27 goals to 4 on aggregate. Last season that aggregate was 9-0. Arsenal thrashed Man City 3-0 in the Community Shield last week, which bodes ominously for the rest of the competition. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Loss |
| Regardless of what happens in Manchester City’s fixture against Bournemouth, this is rumoured to be their final fixture under Pep Guardiola. They will want to see him off in style, while Aston Villa will be backing up following their Europa League final clash in Türkiye. With Aston Villa having already locked in UEFA Champions League spot for next season, they have little to collectively play for. With the FIFA World Cup this summer, the Villa players who will be involved in that tournament will have mentally checked out of this Premier League season. Going back to 2007, Manchester City have won 15 consecutive league home games against Aston Villa. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Loss |
| Liverpool have won three of their last four league games. The only defeat during that run came away against the in-form Manchester United. Liverpool won their last two home fixtures and both wins were by 2-goal margins. Chelsea lost their first league fixture under interim manager Calum McFarlane by a 2-goal margin at home to a second-string Nottingham Forest side. Chelsea have now lost six consecutive league fixtures. During that stretch they only scored one stoppage-time goal. Four of their last five defeats were by 2+ goal margins. The Blues have gone 0-1-3 as the away underdog over the last twelve months. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Burnley have lost four games in a row and, looking back further, they bring 0-2-6 form into this game. Leeds are close to being mathematically assured of Premier League football next season. One more win would likely guarantee it. Leeds have gone 5-1-1 as the home favourite this season, while Burnley have gone 2-3-12 away from home. The hosts bring a five-game unbeaten streak into this game. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Arsenal actually played well in their 1-2 defeat to Man City last week. The Gunners boast a 12-1-1 home record in recent seasons against Newcastle. The Magpies bring a loss-heavy 3-0-8 league record into this game. This includes three consecutive defeats. Arsenal have gone 12-2-2 at home this season. Newcastle have the league’s 16th best away record (4-4-8). | ||
EPL: |
Asian Handicap: Odds: |
Win |
| Tottenham are winless in fourteen league games and they have lost seven of their last eight as well as their last four home games. Spurs failed to achieve an immediate bounce under new manager Roberto de Zerbi and last week’s defeat was compounded by the injury to key defender and captain Cristian Romero. Brighton still have everything to play for with a European spot still within reach. The Seagulls have won five of the last six games, which is currently the best form in the league. Brighton won this fixture 4-1 last season. | ||
EPL: |
Asian Handicap: Odds: |
Loss |
| This is bet is based primarily on circumstances. Crystal Palace are into the quarter-finals of a European football tournament for the first time in the club’s history. They play midweek UEFA Conference League fixtures against Fiorentina both before and after this game, while Newcastle have no midweek commitments. Newcastle haven’t won at Selhurst Park since 2020 and they have only won four away games this season, so I will play it safe and take Newcastle in the handicap rather than the head-to-head. Palace have only won three home games this season, so I’m confident that Newcastle can avoid defeat, especially given Palace’s European circumstances. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| This game features two sides that are currently unaccustomed to losing. Bournemouth are unbeaten in in their last ten games (4-6-0) and they have only lost twice at home this season (6-7-2). Manchester United have only lost one of their last 13 league games (8-4-1) and they have a draw-heavy 5-6-4 away record this season. United’s last two visits to Dean Court resulted in a draw. If I had to pick one side to get this win this weekend, it would have to be Man Utd given their 7-1-1 form coming into this game. | ||
EPL: |
Asian Handicap: Odds: |
Win |
| The draw looks to be the most likely result, however I wouldn’t rule out a Leeds victory. This fixture is sandwiched between Crystal Palace’s Round of 16 fixtures against AEK Larnaca in the UEFA Conference League. With the Eagles virtually safe from relegation, I anticipate they will now prioritise their European campaign. Palace are the bookmaker’s favourite to win the UEFA Conference League – an accomplishment that would give them a Europa League spot next year, and who knows when they would receive a European berth again, otherwise. Leeds, in contrast, have no midweek commitments. Only three points separate The Whites from 18th, so their league results remain incredibly important. Crystal Palace have only managed three home wins this campaign (3-5-5) and one of those was over a 10-man Wolves. While Leeds don’t have strong away credentials over the course of the whole season (1-5-7), they actually bring draw-heavy (0-5-1) away form into this clash. Their only away defeat during that run was by a 4-3 score line against Newcastle – a result that was harsh on Leeds. Leeds swatted aside Palace 4-1 in their last meeting in December. Had you wagered $1 on the draw for every Crystal Palace home game over the last twelve months you would be up $9.10 in profit. Had you wagered $1 on the draw for every Leeds away game this season you would be up $8.03 in profit. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Man Utd bring 6-1-1 form into this clash and that includes four consecutive home wins. The injury-hit Aston Villa are limping along at the moment. Their last two Premier League fixtures saw them lose 0-2 away to Wolves and 1-4 at home against Chelsea. Man Utd have gone 10-1-1 in their last twelve Premier League home games against Aston Villa. This fixture is sandwiched between Villa’s UEFA Europa League Round of 16 fixtures against LOSC, while Man Utd have no midweek commitments. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Man Utd bring 5-1-0 form into this game and they have won three consecutive home fixtures. Crystal Palace have won two of their last three, but their performances have been really poor and they were against out-of-form or relegation-candidate opponents. Palace have also benefited from opposition red cards in recent weeks. The Eagles bring a loss-heavy 2-3-7 form line into this game. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Newcastle picked up a rare away win over the struggling Tottenham last week, but the Magpies have gone 0-2-5 as the away underdog over the last twelve months and, going back to 2007, Newcastle have lost sixteen consecutive Premier League games at the City of Manchester Stadium. The combined goals from their last six Premier League visits to this venue is an eye-watering 19 goals to nil. Five of those six wins to nil were by 2+ goal margins. Man City boast the league’s best 10-2-1 home record this season. For Newcastle, this fixture is sandwiched between their two midweek UEFA Champions League playoff clashes, while Man City have no midweek commitments before or after this game. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Man City have won 16 EPL games in a row against Fulham. Looking at the interactive EPL form guide for away fixtures against strong opponents, Fulham have gone 0-0-4 this season. | ||
EPL: |
Asian Handicap: Odds: |
Loss |
| Crystal Palace are without a win in their last nine Premier League games (0-3-6) and their winless streak is twelve games in all competitions. Brighton have lost just twice (10-8-2) at home over the last twelve months. | ||
EPL: |
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Man Utd have gone 2-0-0 under caretaker boss Michael Carrick and those two wins were over Man City and Arsenal. In recent years, United have gone 6-2-1 at home against Fulham. The Cottagers have a loss-heavy 3-2-10 record as the away underdog over the last twelve months. | ||
EPL: |
Draw No Bet: Odds: |
Win |
| I’ve done well by betting against the beleaguered Crystal Palace each week and with their captain now departed I see no reason to stop. The Eagles’ small squad has struggled badly with their added European commitments this season. They currently have the most injuries of any Premier League team, with up to 10 players out. Palace have made just 22 changes to their starting XI this season, which is nine fewer than any other team. Chelsea, meanwhile, are enjoying a new manager bounce under Liam Rosenior. The Blues boast a 9-1-2 record at Selhurst Park since the Eagles were promoted. Palace have won just twice at home this season (2-5-3). | ||
EPL: |
Asian Handicap: Odds: |
Win |
| This fixture is sandwiched between two UEFA Champions League fixtures for Man City, while Wolves have no midweek commitments. City are winless in four Premier League games while Wolves are unbeaten in four. Wolverhampton’s last three away defeats were all by 1-goal margins (against Aston Villa, Liverpool and Arsenal). | ||
