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| Event | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|
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Win To Nil: Odds: |
Loss |
| Everton effectively played their cup final last week when they defeated Southampton in their final ever fixture at Goodison Park. The Toffees can’t finish any higher or lower than 13th, so I expect the players will have one eye firmly on their summer holiday. Newcastle, in contrast, are fighting to secure a Champions League place next season. The Magpies have won six consecutive home games coming into this fixture. They scored no less than two goals in all six wins and their last three home wins were by 5-0 (Crystal Palace), 3-0 (Ipswich) and 2-0 (Chelsea) margins. Eight of Newcastle’s twelve home wins over the last twelve months were to nil, while six of Everton’s seven away defeats were to nil. | ||
EPL: |
Multi Bet: Odds: |
Win |
| This is a bet that Tottenham and Manchester United lose their Premier League clashes against Aston Villa and Chelsea, respectively. Spurs and United will contest the Europa League final in the following midweek, which will be the only opportunity for both sides to salvage their terrible seasons. They each have nothing put positional prize money to play for in the league and they will most likely field rotated squads this weekend as a result. Aston Villa and Chelsea are both battling for Champions League spots, so they still have everything to play for in the league. Spurs and United have both gone 0-1-4 in their last five EPL games. Villa bring 7-0-1 league form into this clash. Chelsea have won two in a row at home, and this includes a 3-1 victory over Liverpool. | ||
|
Draw No Bet: Odds: |
Win |
| This game could have a huge bearing on who receives a Champions League spot next season. Newcastle and Chelsea sit 4th and 4th in the standings, respectively, with the same number of points. The form-lines for the two sides bears strong resemblance. Newcastle bring 6-1-2 form into this game, compared to 6-2-1 for Chelsea. My lean is towards the hosts, however, due to the venue. Newcastle have won five in a row at St. James’ Park and their last three home wins were by 3+ goal margins. Chelsea have gone 0-0-4 as the away underdog this season and they lost this fixture by a 4-1 margin last year. Chelsea have a midweek Europa Conference League fixture ahead of this clash, while Newcastle will not have played since the previous weekend. | ||
|
Total Goals: Odds: |
Loss |
| Brighton’s last eleven games went over 2.5 goals. Their last three went over 3.5 and their last two went over 4.5. Similarly, Newcastle’s last six games went over 2.5 goals. Three of their last four games went over 4.5. Brighton have conceded at least twice in each of their last six games (including against Leicester City!). At the same time, they have scored at least twice in eight of the last ten. Newcastle have scored 3+ goals in four of their last five games. | ||
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Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Wolverhampton are riding a five-game winning streak. Leicester City are now officially relegated. The Foxes bring 0-1-9 form into this game. Their last eleven defeats were all to nil. Four of Wolverhampton’s last six home wins were to nil. | ||
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Line/Handicap: Odds: |
Loss |
| Leicester City became the first team in English football history to lose eight home league games in a row without scoring. All eight defeats were by 2+ goal margins and their last three home defeats were by 3+ margins. They now host a Liverpool side that is within touching distance of a Premier League title. Eight of Liverpool’s eleven away wins over the last twelve months were by 2+ goal margins. | ||
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Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| The crucial aspect of this fixture is it sits in between Manchester United’s Europa League quarter-final fixtures against Lyon. United languish in 13th place on the table, so the only way they can play European football next season is through success in the Europa League. Newcastle, meanwhile, sit 5th and are well in the fight for a Champions League spot. The hosts have far more at stake in this fixture than the visitors for this reason. Newcastle have gone 8-1-4 as the home favourite over the last twelve months and in recent seasons they have gone 2-0-0 as the home favourite against Man Utd. United lost their two most recent visits to St. James’ Park and both defeats were to nil. Newcastle bring a three-game winning streak into this clash and they only conceded one goal across those games. They raced out to a 3-0 halftime lead against Leicester City in their previous fixture. This gave them the luxury of substituting Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes, Murphy and Alexander Isak early on, which has kept them fresh for this fixture. Man Utd’s last three defeats were to nil and they failed to score in their last two games. Newcastle defeated United 2-0 at Old Trafford earlier in the season. | ||
|
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| This is simply a bet against the hosts. Leicester City have lost seven consecutive home games. All seven defeats were by 2+ goal margins the Foxes failed to score a single goal across those matches. Leicester City registered an expected goals metric of just 0.02 against Man City in midweek. Newcastle have already beaten the Foxes 4-0 this season. Only Liverpool and Nottingham Forest have registered more away wins than Newcastle this season. | ||
|
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Ipswich have lost seven of their last eight games. They have gone 3-8-17 all season, which equates to a defeat frequency of 60.7%. It’s actually worse at home, where they have a defeat frequency of 64.3%. Ipswich have only recorded one home win (1-4-9 record) all season. The Tractor Boys have lost four home games in a row, and this includes a 2-1 defeat to 20th placed Southampton. Nottingham Forest have lost their last three away games, however they were against much tougher opponents. Forest have gone 6-0-0 away from home this season against sides that are currently in the bottom half of the table. Only league-leaders Liverpool have won more league games than Forest this season. Nottingham Forest have only lost one game out of 16 as the favourite this season. They kept clean sheets in their last two games, which were against Arsenal and Man City. | ||
|
Asian Handicap: Odds: |
Loss |
| Aston Villa will be backing up after playing away against Club Brugge in the UEFA Champions League. They have only won one of their last seven Premier League games. Brentford have gone 7-4-2 as the home favourite over the last twelve months. | ||
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Total Goals: Odds: |
Loss |
| Three of Newcastle's last five opponents scored 3+ goals and four of the last five scored 2+. Liverpool’s last five home games went over 2.5 goals while Newcastle’s last seven games went over 2.5. The last three meetings between Liverpool and Newcastle went over 2.5 goals and their last two meetings each saw six total goals. | ||
|
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Leicester City bring 1-0-9 form into this game. Eight of those nine defeats were by 2+ goal margins. The Foxes have gone 2-3-8 at home this season and they have lost five consecutive home fixtures. Brentford bring a three-game winning streak away from home into this clash. | ||
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Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Southampton bring 1-1-9 form into this game. They have gone 0-0-7 as the home underdog this season. Bournemouth have gone 5-0-2 as the away favourite over the last twelve months. | ||
|
Asian Handicap: Odds: |
Win |
| Both teams enter this game on the back of disappointing results. Forest’s heavy away defeat to Bournemouth ended an eight-game (7-1-0) unbeaten run, while Brighton’s home defeat to Everton ended a six-game (2-4-0) unbeaten streak. I will take Forest at the +0.5 handicap in this fixture because they have gone 7-4-1 as the home favourite over the last twelve months and they already drew Brighton at Amex Stadium earlier in the season. Brighton’ are a tough nut to defeat, but they haven’t won frequently of late. The Seagulls have gone 2-6-3 in their last eleven games. | ||
|
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Newcastle’s nine-game winning streak in all competitions came to an end last week, but over the last twelve months they boast a better record on the back of a defeat (7-2-1) than on the back of a win (10-5-5). Southampton have gone 0-0-6 as the home underdog this season. Their last three opponents all scored 3+ goals. | ||
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Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Nottingham Forest bring 6-1-0 form into this clash. The only team they failed to beat during that run was league-leaders Liverpool. Southampton haven’t played their midweek fixture away against Man Utd at the time of writing, but prior to that they were in 0-2-8 form. Forest’s midweek game took place two days before Southampton’s, so they should be the fresher of the two sides. Southampton (prior to the United game) have gone 0-2-8 away from home this season. | ||
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Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| This is simply a bet against Leicester City, who have lost six consecutive games. They only scored two goals across those six defeats. The appointment of Ruud van Nistelrooy as manager is currently not working out at all. Was it a knee-jerk reaction to his interim role at Man Utd? | ||
|
Total Goals: Odds: |
Win |
| Eleven of Everton’s last thirteen games went under 2.5 goals. Seven of those games went under 1.5 and five ended goalless. Aston Villa bring poor away form into this clash. The Villans have lost five consecutive away games and this is largely driven by the fact that they only scored two goals across those five defeats. Aston Villa’s last three visits to Goodison Park went under 2.5 goals and their game last season resulted in a goalless draw. | ||
|
Total Goals: Odds: |
Win |
| Everton continue to struggle to score goals, but they are well organised defensively and they boast an excellent goalkeeper. This combination has seen ten of their last twelve games go under 2.5. goals. Bournemouth’s average total score at home this season is just 2.0, which is the second lowest in the league. This has seen six of their nine home fixtures go under 2.5 goals. | ||
|
Head-to-head: Odds: |
Win |
| Tottenham bring 1-1-4 form into this game, which is largely due to their porous, injury-hit defence. Newcastle, meanwhile, have won four in a row by a combined 13 goals to nil. Tottenham have gone 0-0-5 as the home underdog over the last twelve months. Spurs have been generous hosts over the festive period. Five of the last six visitors to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium scored at least twice. Those 2+ goal-scoring visitors include Ipswich and Wolverhampton. | ||
