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NRL Predictability Index


The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

R Team Home Fixtures Away Fixtures All Fixtures
1Cronulla Sharks0011.50012.50022.0
2Gold Coast Titans1004.50011.51013.0
3Canberra Raiders0024.80014.50034.7
4Newcastle Knights1003.51006.02004.8
5Penrith Panthers1015.80014.51025.3
6North QLD Cowboys1002.50029.51027.2
7New Zealand Warriors1001.520010.83007.7
8Canterbury Bulldogs1017.50019.51028.2
9Brisbane Broncos1006.500210.31029.0
10St George Dragons10018.51001.520010.0
11Wests Tigers2008.310018.530011.7
12Sydney Roosters1009.500114.510112.0
13Melbourne Storm10115.510010.520113.8
14South Sydney Rabbitohs10124.31004.020117.5
15Manly Sea Eagles10051.500217.010228.5
16Parramatta Eels0000.000229.500229.5

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