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NRL Predictability Index


The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

R Team Home Fixtures Away Fixtures All Fixtures
1Cronulla Sharks5086.38069.4130147.9
2Canberra Raiders7059.15079.8120129.5
3North QLD Cowboys60611.44089.41001410.4
4Melbourne Storm80613.34098.31201510.9
5Canterbury Bulldogs70510.460611.71301111.0
6Newcastle Knights50710.760612.51101311.6
7Gold Coast Titans90311.850711.81401011.8
8Penrith Panthers80513.351710.31311211.8
9South Sydney Rabbitohs70613.880610.81501212.3
10Wests Tigers60612.550713.41101312.9
11Sydney Roosters100513.470513.51701013.5
12Parramatta Eels60616.330912.0901514.1
13Brisbane Broncos70614.950714.51201314.7
14New Zealand Warriors60611.780519.11401115.5
15Manly Sea Eagles51617.460615.11111216.3
16St George Dragons60613.870718.51301316.4

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