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NRL Predictability Index


The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

R Team Home Fixtures Away Fixtures All Fixtures
1Canterbury Bulldogs3039.94047.97078.8
2Cronulla Sharks3056.430412.76099.4
3Canberra Raiders4046.930313.97079.9
4North QLD Cowboys40410.820510.660910.7
5Brisbane Broncos3039.530511.660810.7
6Gold Coast Titans50110.930510.780610.8
7Penrith Panthers50211.430410.980611.2
8Wests Tigers50310.620512.470811.5
9South Sydney Rabbitohs50214.96028.9110411.7
10Newcastle Knights30411.340413.470812.4
11Melbourne Storm40316.73049.970713.3
12St George Dragons60211.320417.480613.9
13Parramatta Eels30515.010612.8401114.0
14Sydney Roosters50316.430413.680715.1
15New Zealand Warriors40315.460117.7100416.5
16Manly Sea Eagles30422.830517.060919.7

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