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NRL Predictability Index


The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

R Team Home Fixtures Away Fixtures All Fixtures
1Canberra Raiders2077.861211.28199.5
2Parramatta Eels41411.92078.7611110.3
3St George Dragons30512.340610.3701111.1
4Penrith Panthers70210.251312.2121511.2
5Melbourne Storm70312.350310.1120611.3
6North QLD Cowboys50410.430613.2801011.8
7Wests Tigers41412.130612.9711012.5
8Cronulla Sharks5048.950416.8100812.9
9Canterbury Bulldogs20713.760312.5801013.1
10Manly Sea Eagles20713.640513.1601213.3
11Gold Coast Titans60314.350413.6110713.9
12South Sydney Rabbitohs60318.13069.990914.0
13Newcastle Knights50414.850414.5100814.6
14New Zealand Warriors80118.340513.3120615.8
15Sydney Roosters50410.960321.1110716.0
16Brisbane Broncos30618.620715.1501316.8

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