NRL Predictability Index |
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The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.
Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.
The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.
Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.
| R | Team | Home Fixtures | Away Fixtures | All Fixtures | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | P | NC | PS | C | P | NC | PS | C | P | NC | PS | |||
| 1 |  | Cronulla Sharks | 5 | 0 | 8 | 6.3 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 9.5 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 7.9 |
| 2 |  | Canberra Raiders | 7 | 0 | 5 | 9.1 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 9.8 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 9.5 |
| 3 |  | North QLD Cowboys | 6 | 0 | 6 | 11.4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 9.4 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 10.4 |
| 4 |  | Melbourne Storm | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13.7 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7.6 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 10.8 |
| 5 |  | Canterbury Bulldogs | 7 | 0 | 5 | 10.4 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 11.7 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 11.0 |
| 6 |  | Newcastle Knights | 5 | 0 | 7 | 10.7 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12.5 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 11.6 |
| 7 |  | Gold Coast Titans | 9 | 0 | 3 | 11.8 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 11.8 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 11.8 |
| 8 |  | Penrith Panthers | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13.3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 10.3 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 11.8 |
| 9 |  | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13.8 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 11.2 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 12.5 |
| 10 |  | Wests Tigers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12.5 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 13.4 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 12.9 |
| 11 |  | Sydney Roosters | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13.7 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 13.5 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 13.6 |
| 12 |  | Parramatta Eels | 6 | 0 | 6 | 16.3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12.0 | 9 | 0 | 15 | 14.1 |
| 13 |  | Brisbane Broncos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 14.9 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 14.5 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 14.7 |
| 14 |  | New Zealand Warriors | 6 | 0 | 6 | 11.7 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 19.1 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 15.5 |
| 15 |  | Manly Sea Eagles | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17.4 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15.1 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 16.3 |
| 16 |  | St George Dragons | 6 | 0 | 6 | 13.8 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18.5 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 16.4 |
