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NFL Predictability Index


The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

R Team Home Fixtures Away Fixtures All Fixtures
1Los Angeles Chargers0036.82104.02135.4
2Buffalo Bills2007.81115.03116.1
3New York Jets3009.51024.84027.2
4San Francisco 49ers1018.53016.94027.4
5Cleveland Browns1029.80036.31058.1
6Atlanta Falcons10213.01010.82038.1
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers1025.700212.31048.3
8Philadelphia Eagles10111.53016.84028.3
9Kansas City Chiefs2015.030111.05028.4
10Chicago Bears3004.710212.34028.5
11Seattle Seahawks10113.01025.82038.7
12Green Bay Packers2017.710210.23038.9
13Detroit Lions1026.820111.53039.2
14Arizona Cardinals1026.200313.21059.7
15Minnesota Vikings30112.40024.53039.8
16New England Patriots00315.22014.72049.9
17Oakland Raiders2028.810211.830410.1
18New York Giants00212.53019.930310.8
19Washington Redskins10214.21016.320311.0
20Carolina Panthers01211.330011.031211.2
21Indianapolis Colts3004.000318.730311.3
22Cincinnati Bengals10210.820012.530211.5
23Los Angeles Rams10217.22017.230312.2
24Dallas Cowboys1028.710117.820312.3
25Miami Dolphins10111.320114.030212.9
26Pittsburgh Steelers10118.520210.830313.3
27New Orleans Saints1019.320116.530213.6
28Denver Broncos21114.300113.521214.1
29Tennessee Titans2017.810223.830315.8
30Houston Texans20221.82009.840217.8
31Baltimore Ravens1029.520126.230317.8
32Jacksonville Jaguars10223.720120.830322.3

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