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NFL Predictability Index


The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

R Team Home Fixtures Away Fixtures All Fixtures
1Seattle Seahawks0000.00111.30111.3
2Minnesota Vikings1002.00012.01012.0
3San Francisco 49ers0013.00012.00022.5
4Denver Broncos0112.50000.00112.5
5New York Giants0012.00014.00023.0
6Atlanta Falcons1001.50015.01013.3
7Carolina Panthers1005.00011.51013.3
8Houston Texans0000.00023.50023.5
9Cleveland Browns2002.01006.53003.5
10Green Bay Packers1013.80000.01013.8
11Chicago Bears1002.51005.52004.0
12Dallas Cowboys1004.00015.01014.5
13Pittsburgh Steelers0019.00013.00026.0
14Tennessee Titans1006.50016.01016.3
15New England Patriots1000.500112.51016.5
16Philadelphia Eagles1005.00019.01017.0
17Jacksonville Jaguars10012.51002.02007.3
18Miami Dolphins1006.010011.02008.5
19Los Angeles Chargers00113.51004.01018.8
20Oakland Raiders00114.01005.01019.5
21Cincinnati Bengals10012.010010.020011.0
22Kansas City Chiefs0000.020011.320011.3
23New Orleans Saints00212.30000.000212.3
24Tampa Bay Buccaneers1009.010018.020013.5
25Indianapolis Colts00110.010018.010114.0
26New York Jets00111.010119.510216.7
27Los Angeles Rams10022.010014.020018.0
28Washington Redskins00118.010020.010119.0
29Buffalo Bills0014.000136.500220.3
30Detroit Lions00138.01003.010120.5
31Arizona Cardinals00120.000122.000221.0
32Baltimore Ravens10036.500112.010124.3

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