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NFL Predictability Index


The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

R Team Home Fixtures Away Fixtures All Fixtures
1Cleveland Browns2056.61055.630106.1
2Tampa Bay Buccaneers2046.51157.63197.1
3Atlanta Falcons4039.52044.36077.1
4Seattle Seahawks20410.33135.45177.7
5Detroit Lions2045.14129.96167.7
6New York Jets6018.51147.17157.8
7Minnesota Vikings50111.44036.19048.6
8Kansas City Chiefs4026.530410.97068.9
9San Francisco 49ers20410.85027.47069.0
10Los Angeles Chargers30411.64116.17159.0
11Oakland Raiders3048.411410.04189.2
12Green Bay Packers3048.94029.47069.2
13Tennessee Titans3124.720514.15179.7
14Arizona Cardinals3136.210514.14189.8
15Chicago Bears4126.520413.96169.9
16Pittsburgh Steelers30313.33047.760710.3
17Cincinnati Bengals30411.84028.770610.3
18Washington Redskins20410.630410.250810.4
19Indianapolis Colts4027.420512.960710.4
20Carolina Panthers31210.950210.281410.5
21New Orleans Saints4027.240313.480510.5
22New England Patriots30310.250211.480510.8
23Philadelphia Eagles50112.250210.8100311.4
24Buffalo Bills41211.921311.462511.7
25New York Giants10516.04038.350811.8
26Houston Texans30416.84026.870612.2
27Miami Dolphins32210.920416.052613.2
28Los Angeles Rams40315.440212.480514.0
29Baltimore Ravens30314.641215.371515.0
30Denver Broncos31314.900615.031915.0
31Jacksonville Jaguars40313.740216.780515.1
32Dallas Cowboys30414.740217.170615.8

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