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NFL Predictability Index

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The following table ranks each team based on the predictability of their score lines as measured by the accuracy of pre-game bookmaker lines. Figures are shown for home, away and all fixtures.

Pinnacle Sports lines are used to determine the cover frequencies and predictability scores. The predictability scores are calculated as the average of the absolute values of the difference between the final score margin and the bookmaker's line. For example, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team wins by 2 points, the difference is abs(2 - 4.5) = 2.5. Alternatively, if the home line is -4.5 and the home team loses by 2 points, the difference is abs(-2 - 4.5) = 6.5.

The table headers are as follows: C: covers, P: pushes, NC: non covers, PS: predictability score.

Please note that the PS values essentially measure the unpredictability of a team's performance. A lower PS score indicates the bookmaker has more accurately set the lines for the team's games. Conversely, a higher PS score indicates the team's results have been more unpredictable this season.

R Team Home Fixtures Away Fixtures All Fixtures
CPNCPS CPNCPS CPNCPS
1Cleveland Browns2067.12065.840126.4
2New York Jets7017.52156.39166.9
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers4047.02157.56197.3
4Atlanta Falcons5039.23076.280107.5
5Tennessee Titans5124.040611.69188.2
6Oakland Raiders3147.42159.35298.3
7Detroit Lions4046.541310.38178.4
8Kansas City Chiefs6037.740410.310078.9
9New Orleans Saints5045.950411.910088.9
10Chicago Bears5127.130511.18179.1
11Los Angeles Chargers40411.84136.68179.2
12Green Bay Packers3058.84049.67099.2
13Carolina Panthers4139.66038.910169.2
14San Francisco 49ers30510.16028.49079.2
15Minnesota Vikings6039.35049.411079.4
16New England Patriots6058.960210.112079.4
17Indianapolis Colts5037.130512.18089.6
18Pittsburgh Steelers30610.24049.370109.7
19Seattle Seahawks20613.24136.36199.8
20Arizona Cardinals4137.920611.96199.9
21Buffalo Bills51211.04149.392610.1
22Washington Redskins4049.730510.570910.1
23Cincinnati Bengals40411.95039.890710.8
24Philadelphia Eagles70311.860310.1130611.0
25Miami Dolphins3239.920613.252911.6
26New York Giants30513.94049.870911.8
27Houston Texans30517.24049.070913.1
28Jacksonville Jaguars50413.960413.1110813.5
29Dallas Cowboys30514.451213.181713.8
30Denver Broncos31413.810714.0411113.9
31Baltimore Ravens30513.351214.781714.0
32Los Angeles Rams40515.850313.890814.9

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