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EPL - Poisson Distribution Analysis

EPL

Introduction

This tool uses the Poisson distribution to calculate various outcome probabilities and their respective fair odds for a selected pair of teams.

This model is sensitive to which side is specified as being the home team. It applies the approach outlined by this article: Poisson Distribution: How to calculate Poisson Distribution for soccer betting.

Variables

Select two teams and choose the timeframe for which the Poisson distribution is to be calculated.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.

Home Team:  
Away Team:  
Start date:  
End date:  
 

Poisson Analysis

League stats:
Average Home Goals Average Away Goals
1.7506 1.4682

Team stats:
  Attacking
Strength
Defensive
Strength
Expected
Goals
Leicester City 0.6664 1.1352 1.2995
West Ham 1.0217 1.1139 1.7028

The following are match outcome probabilities predicted by the Poisson distribution.

Head to HeadProababilityFair Odds
Leicester City 29.31% 3.41
Draw 23.76% 4.21
West Ham 46.93% 2.13
 
Both Teams
to Score
ProababilityFair Odds
Yes 59.48% 1.68
No 40.52% 2.47
 
Over/UnderProababilityFair Odds
Over 0.5 95.03% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.97% 20.13
Over 1.5 80.12% 1.25
Under 1.5 19.88% 5.03
Over 2.5 57.73% 1.73
Under 2.5 42.27% 2.37
Over 3.5 35.33% 2.83
Under 3.5 64.67% 1.55
 
Clean SheetProababilityFair Odds
Leicester City: Yes 18.22% 5.49
Leicester City: No 81.78% 1.22
West Ham: Yes 27.27% 3.67
West Ham: No 72.73% 1.37

Correct score fair odds and their associated probabilities:

  West Ham (away team)
0 1 2 3
Leicester City
(home
team)
0 20.13
4.97%
11.82
8.46%
13.89
7.20%
24.47
4.09%
1 15.49
6.46%
9.10
10.99%
10.69
9.36%
18.83
5.31%
2 23.84
4.19%
14.00
7.14%
16.45
6.08%
28.97
3.45%
3 55.04
1.82%
32.32
3.09%
37.97
2.63%
66.89
1.50%
4 169
0.59%
99.49
1.01%
117
0.86%
206
0.49%
5 652
0.15%
383
0.26%
450
0.22%
792
0.13%

Other EPL Resources

The interactive EPL form guide enables you to view overall as well as home and away form guides for the league. You can also filter by strength of opponent.

The EPL betting value index ranks each team based on their betting value in the head-to-head market.

The EPL Elo ratings tool calculates the Elo ratings of each team using the parameters of your choosing.

The EPL home-field advantage analysis compares each team's home and away records.

The EPL score statistics provides goals for, goals against, goal difference plus total score statistics for the current season. Averages for home games, away games and all games are provided.

The EPL stadium analysis provides a range of statistics for each team at each stadium.

The EPL table displays league table/ladder data for the date range of your choosing.

The EPL winning margins page provides winning margin data for the league as well as for specific teams at home and/or away.

EPL clean sheets displays each team's clean sheets tally for the date range of your choosing.

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