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EPL - Poisson Distribution Analysis

EPL


Introduction

This tool uses the Poisson distribution to calculate various outcome probabilities and their respective fair odds for a selected pair of teams.

This model is sensitive to which side is specified as being the home team. It applies the approach outlined by this article: Poisson Distribution: How to calculate Poisson Distribution for soccer betting.

Variables

Select two teams and choose the timeframe for which the Poisson distribution is to be calculated.

Note that the earliest record on file for this league is August 14, 2010.

Home Team:
Away Team: 
Start date:  
End date:  
 

 

Poisson Analysis

League stats:
Average Home Goals Average Away Goals
1.5658 1.1842

Team stats:
  Attacking Strength Defensive Strength Expected Goals
Bournemouth 1.0420 1.2889 2.2143
Stoke City 0.6861 1.3571 1.0472

The following are match outcome probabilities predicted by the Poisson distribution.

Head to HeadProababilityFair Odds
Bournemouth 63.81% 1.57
Draw 19.41% 5.15
Stoke City 16.78% 5.96
 
Both Teams to ScoreProababilityFair Odds
Yes 57.82% 1.73
No 42.18% 2.37
 
Over/UnderProababilityFair Odds
Over 0.5 96.17% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.83% 26.09
Over 1.5 83.67% 1.20
Under 1.5 16.33% 6.12
Over 2.5 63.28% 1.58
Under 2.5 36.72% 2.72
Over 3.5 41.11% 2.43
Under 3.5 58.89% 1.70
 
Clean SheetProababilityFair Odds
Bournemouth: Yes 35.09% 2.85
Bournemouth: No 64.91% 1.54
Stoke City: Yes 10.92% 9.15
Stoke City: No 89.08% 1.12
 

Correct score fair odds and their associated probabilities:

  Stoke City (away team)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Bournemouth
(home
team)
0 26.09
3.83%
24.91
4.01%
47.58
2.10%
136
0.73%
521
0.19%
2,486
0.04%
1 11.78
8.49%
11.25
8.89%
21.49
4.65%
61.55
1.62%
235
0.43%
1,123
0.09%
2 10.64
9.40%
10.16
9.84%
19.41
5.15%
55.60
1.80%
212
0.47%
1,014
0.10%
3 14.42
6.94%
13.77
7.26%
26.29
3.80%
75.33
1.33%
288
0.35%
1,374
0.07%
4 26.05
3.84%
24.87
4.02%
47.50
2.11%
136
0.73%
520
0.19%
2,482
0.04%
5 58.81
1.70%
56.16
1.78%
107
0.93%
307
0.33%
1,174
0.09%
5,603
0.02%

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